First Calgary Petroleums (FCP.TO) Buy, Sell…

First Calgary Petroleums (FCP.TO)

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DON'T BUY

Doesn't follow this one closely. Very large reserve base. Some question about whether they can get their gas to market. Had put themselves up for sale, but there were no buyers. Difficult to do a valuation on the company as you don't know what the cash generation is going to be.

TRADE

Was always difficult to evaluate and always ran ahead of its value. Found gas in Northern Africa, but it doesn't have any value unless someone puts in a pipeline to create cash flow. Thinks there's an awful lot of value there.

DON'T BUY

They've put their assets up for sale and it didn't happen. Didn't get a bid that was attractive. Would not speculate on this stock. Has corrected an immense amount from the peak, but they're not going to bring their reserves into production, so you'll have to assume someone wil have to come and do a joint venture with them.

DON'T BUY

Has a lot of trouble with this one. Doesn't see where growth is going to come from. Found a huge discovery of gas, but couldn't get a serious bid.

WEAK BUY

Had some news today that wasn't good in that they had to abandon a well and move a rig which isn't good. Now a cheap company. Starting to have value inestors look at it. Getting below its net asset value. Volatile. Treat as a trading vehicle rather than a long term hold.

WAIT

Had tremendous potential with their Algerian fields but were unsuccessful in attracting partners/buyers. Momentum is to the downside. Wait for another quarter for things to clear.

DON'T BUY

Sold out of his position about a year ago when it was suspected they would not be able to find a buyer of their assets.

DON'T BUY

Have a tremendous potential asset in Algeria, but were unable to find anyone to buy them. Wait on the sidelines, at least until a bottom on the stock is established.

DON'T BUY

Couldn't get a buyer so the stock dropped. Very risky.

WAIT

Did a financing last week so they replenished the balance sheet. They're going to go on their own to drill. Came up with a reserve definition of "possible". This has to be moved into the proven category. Until they do that, it is in question mark territory. His view is that the Algeria is a very good basin for finding it but is concerned about the fiscal regime and how they will move the natural gas.

DON'T BUY

Went into a reverse because too many people owned it and started to take profits. Now very oversold. Maybe a speculator could take a chance on this stock, but only for very strong hearted people.

DON'T BUY

They're between a rock and a hard place. Repsol (REP-N) is the only party they are negotiating with and Repsol knows this, so the can squeeze very hard. They have 2 alternatives, make a deal with Repsol or raise capital and build the infrastructure themselves. Net asset value is in the $12/13 range.

DON'T BUY

A bit of a geographical story here. Algeria is just not the best place to be in the oil business. Haven't been able to find a viable partner and thinks there was a lot of hot money that piled into this stock after they announced their exploration results.

WEAK BUY

Bought at $13 which is a great entry point for an ultimate takeout. It's up for sale and lots of buyers have declared their interest. The NAV is in the $13/14 range. There's probably $1/2 left in the stock.

DON'T BUY

They are shopping the company around, looking for a buyer. They can't develop the Algerian assets with the current management team, cash flows, etc.

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First Calgary Petroleums (FCP.TO)