First Calgary Petroleums (FCP.TO) Buy, Sell…

First Calgary Petroleums (FCP.TO)

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BUY

The rumours/noise around the company is humungous. A lot of speculation about what may/may not happen. Ignore the noise. It's a company with a very good asset that somebody will want, just a question of valuation. 1) They'll get a great big bid on the company in a couple of weeks and it'll get sold 2) they won't get a bid that's acceptable and will pull it off the market and it will drop to the $12 range. Pretty good risk.

SELL

Has been fueled by the expectation of the reserves in Algeria. They are shopping the company around, looking for a buyer and it's questionable if they can find one as a buyer would be taking over a $3.5 billion company, but they also have to pour another couple of billion into developing these fields.

HOLD

Since its $15 level, has been thinking it's more of an exit part of the cycle. Have a huge resource that's going to take an awful lot of capital to develop in taking their gas from Africa and getting it to Europe which effectively puts them up for sale. What's a foreign company going to pay for them?

HOLD

Repsol (REP-N) is showing interest in a takeover. Has had a fantastic performance.

TRADE

Down due to some profit taking and people getting tired of waiting for a deal to happen for sale of the company. Might be running light on cash. Europe is buying, but nobody is buying here.

HOLD

The biggest concern over the last 12 months has been the size of the findings, but now getting more conclusive evidence of it.

WAIT

The asset base is really interesting. What is not clear is how they will be able to monetize it. Will they get the pipelines/infrastructure in place to get full value for their reserves. Have some reservations.

HOLD

Looking at being acquired. Not sure it's undervalued. Has discovered huge amounts of gas in Algeria and now have to find contracts for these.

DON'T BUY

A little expensive. Prefers domestic oil/gas plays. Prefers other companies.

WAIT

One of the best perfoming stocks in the energy sector. When a stock's making new highs, it's hard to say where it can go. A guess on the next upside resistance is in the $22/23 area. If it drops below the $15 range, that would be a big negative sign technically. Feels the energy sector is in a rotation, so you probably should wait.

HOLD

Essentially for sale now. Have been drilling phenominal gas wells in Algeria. Not sure he would buy at this time.

HOLD

You could sell it. You have to believe Stat Oil (?) or someone else is there. A tremendous asset. Take some profit.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Above its 200 day moving average. A little bit over bought and needs a correction. Could pull back towards $13.

WATCH

Had a long base running through 2002 and then went into an up trend. Had 4 uplegs and then a spike. If it goes below the recent low again, then sell.

HOLD

Huge assets in Algeria. Doing well.

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First Calgary Petroleums (FCP.TO)