Stockchase Opinions

Brianne GardnerDollarama Inc.DOL.TOTOP PICKMay 29, 2026

Seeing slight upward technical trend from the March/April pullback. One of the strongest, long-term retail stories in Canada, especially as we might be heading into a tougher environment. Margins under some pressure.

Still room to expand store count meaningfully over time. Becoming more international via Latin American and Australia. Potential upside of ~15%, price target over $200. Yield is 0.27%.

(Analysts’ price target is $198.38)
$176.30

Stock price when the opinion was issued

$176.30

As of May 29, 2026. Market Open.

Consumer Products
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HOLD

Hasn't been adding due to valuation, and so it's one of his lowest-weight positions. Lots to like, but approaching saturation in Canada. Retail expanding internationally often doesn't work out. Latin American expansion is "so far, so good", but doesn't really move the needle (only 3-5% of profits).

Likes it long term. Expects a better buying opportunity.

HOLD

Sideways and slightly downward lately. Still the dominant model in Canada. Higher energy and softness in Canadian economy are making consumers more value-focused. Expansion should help revenues and margins.

Main issue is valuation at 34x forward PE.

DON'T BUY

High multiple for growth, and growth didn't deliver what people were expecting. Canadian consumer feeling pinched. Market saturated in Canada, so they've gone international (and that makes him nervous).

DON'T BUY

Very high multiple of ~30x, yet growing ~13%. That troubles him. Sales miss, softer guidance, 4% EPS reduction, softer margins. Will probably do well in Mexico. Doesn't love it from risk/reward.

DON'T BUY

When times are tough, consumers gravitate to Walmart, Costco and Dollarama. DOL does a great job providing value to customers. He wishes he owned it. Problem is the high valuation, from high-30s to mid-30s, which remains too high.

BUY

Consumer’s hurting a bit at the lower end. Huge fan of this company. Classified as Consumer Discretionary, but it’s more a Consumer Staple. Performs well in both up and down business cycles. Choppy recently. Premium valuation, warranted. Core holding that helps stabilize your portfolio.

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TOP PICK

When they reported their Q4 last week, same-store sales missed estimates and shares plunged nearly 8%. Are things that bad? Canadian same-store sales increased 1.5% and not the expected 2.8%, and fell 1.6% in traffic though rose 3.1% rise in basket size. Keep in mind that parts of Canada (i.e. Ontario) suffered an unusually cold January which impacted sales. Q4 sales rose 11.7%, including $234 million in sales from 402 Australian stores. EPS climbed 2.1% year-over-year, though gross margins of 45.5% paled next to 46.8% from the previous year.Meanwhile, DOL guides full-year same-stores sales at 3-4% compared to the just-reported 4.2%. A mixed bag, for sure. Further, the chain plans to open 60-70 new Canadian stores in the coming year, a $46.7 million warehouse in Calgary to support Western Canadian growth, open stores in Mexico, Peru, Colombia, El Salvador and Guatemala while converting an Australian chain to its own brand.

WAIT

Whole witches' brew of things in the global economy that are impacting consumer spending. Higher interest rates, lack of rate cuts. Stock's still 33x PE. Higher valuation stocks tend to get hurt the most with interest rates rising.

On the other side of a phenomenal growth runway. Not opening as many stores, and those returns aren't as good. Mature company, growth hard to come by, so it's going international (less profitable). Don't buy the dip at this point.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

It recently touched 40x PE, but has fallen to the mid-30s. Is a great business and likes it long term. He has scaled back his weighting over time because of valuation. Also, it is priced for perfection, so even good, but imperfect earnings impact the stock. He may add to it when its PE returns to the mid-20s.

WATCH

Doing well, looking to build another 70-80 stores this year. Be cautious. Though defensive stocks tend to trade higher, PE ratio of 40x is double that of the TSX at 20x. In growth mode. Recessionary pressures in Canada would be a tailwind.

RISKY

Great company, well run. Likes the business model -- hard to raise price by 10% on a $100 product, but much easier to do on a $1 product. Valuation is the concern; be aware that market sentiment could decide one day that it's not willing to pay 25x PE.

DON'T BUY

Pricey. Moving more up-market. How many more stores can they build? History of Canadian companies expanding in the US is not riddled with success. Be cautious.

HOLD

In the retail space, likes the more defensive profile of this name.

WAIT

Wonderful business, adds a lot of value for customers. He struggles with the valuation, given its growth profile. To get a good longer-term return, you need earnings growth and multiple expansion.

WMT, as well as COST and DOL, are very defensive havens for investors. That's bid up the shares. PE ratios for the three are all north of 40x. With just a slight moderation in the PE, the overall return will still be flat. He'd be interested on a significant pullback. Be patient.