Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO)

Management team assuring production/refinery issues not a concern. Expecting company to hit $4 billion debt target in January 2024. At least 30 years of long dated inventory. Not expecting M&A anytime soon. Trading around ~4x free cash flow at $80 oil. Expecting ~$38 share price at $80 oil. Will continue to own shares at 11% of fund. 

Egress on heavy oil in Canada a concern. Recent EIA reports on Gasoline demand lower. Would hold at this time. Expecting lower oil prices. Does not own shares. 

Remains bullish on oil prices ($85-$100).
Meaningful leverage to $90 oil price.
January 2024 will see 100% return of capital to shareholders.
Currently trading at 17% to cash flow.
Expecting 50% upside at current oil price. 
Current share price undervalued. 

2027 bond issue specifically.
Good if economy enters into a recession.
Expecting short terms rates to go down.
~6% yield is very safe.
Energy space very strong. 

Remains very bullish on oil, so he's looking for leverage to that call. Material discount to peers. Quickly getting to the threshold of paying investors 100% of free cashflow. 17% free cashflow yield at current oil price, 22% at $100 oil. Bullet-proof balance sheet. Yield is 2.19%.

Energy is a late-cycle play, with crude locked in a trading range of $60-85 until late 2024 or early 2025. You could buy and collect your dividend, but energy stocks will be relative under-performers for the next 1.5-2 years. Yield is 2.5%.

Underperformed on issues with US refinery, indicates on track to get back online. New CEO bought $1M worth of stock. 30 years of inventory in heavy oil. Huge leverage to oil price. Once debt reaches a certain level, investors will reap all the free cashflow. Its 6x multiple is fair value. Yield is 2.57%.

Because of ESG pressure, big cap oil has decided to buy back shares, pay down debt, increase dividends, keep capex reasonable. Not bad to own over the long term, as oil production is not increasing so prices will stay higher. Hasn't liked CVE since it was spun off. He owns and prefers CNQ.

Great company, but share price driven by price oil.
Wait to buy.
Not a good time to be in energy.

High quality. One of the better Canadian oil and gas producers. Fairly strong balance sheet, small dividend. Stock price drop makes valuation more attractive. Tremendous amount of free cashflow. Increasing dividends. Can buy here, below $20 looks even better.

They hiked their dividend over 30% last quarter. Trades at a decent PE, 7.5x. Pays a 2.5% dividend. 

Trouble in last couple quarters. Oil prices will hang in. Nice cashflow. Over 2-4 years, you'll do OK. He owns CNQ.