Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO)

A value trap. The ultimate catalyst (fixing their downstream) keeps getting deferred and deferred. Share buybacks in recent months is sluggish. A very cheap stock, but downstream keeps biting them. He's cheering for them, but look at CNQ instead.

Q4 missed on downstream margins. Upstream projects are on schedule and on budget. Expects FCF to inflect meaningfully as spending drops and production starts to kick in. Sector faces headwinds, but this is a name you can go to. Way cheaper than peers. Nice production growth, cashflow growth, shareholder returns of 8%. Would be adversely hit by tariffs. All in, he'd be a buyer.

She doesn't own any producers, and she owns PPL, so she likes that idea.

Trades under 12x PE and are buying back lots of shares. Likes it. Options: sell the April $25 call and get 20 cents, not a big premium, but leaving lots upside to get closer to the upper-$20s. But he is not selling calls on CVE, because he expects the share price to recover. But at $27-28, he will sell at $30s. For new money, he will sell $20-22 puts.

Likes the energy space, and this name is his play. Pipelines to the West Coast have opened up. 

Energy stocks are in a holding pattern, and this one is typical. Take a look at the 3-year chart. In a trading range, but looks to be cracking support and that's a danger. Technically, he'd be a bit concerned.

One of his worst calls in 2024 backing this instead of SU. Downstream challenges continue. Negative EBITDA in a quarter matters. Sentiment is really bad toward these guys. Quality inventory. He sold for a tax loss, plans to come back when confident that downstream issues (refining, which is a low-margin business) are fixed.

The ZEO ETF recently broke out to new highs. But this one is not a leader among those. He prefers CNQ, IMO or SU.

EPS was 42c, vs estimates of 42.4c; revenue of $16.55B beat estimates of $11.63B. EBITDA of $2.4B beat estimates by 2.3%. With maintenance at Cenovus' Christina Lake facility completed, total production could rise above 800,000 barrels a day in 4Q vs. 771,000 in 3Q, which may lift upstream cash flow and earnings. Operating cash flow dipped slightly to C$2.5 billion in 3Q vs. C$2.8 billion in 2Q, mostly due to the pullback in commodity prices and a negative operating margin for the company's downstream segment. Assuming stable cash flow in 4Q, the company should continue its robust capital returns program -- it returned C$1.1 billion to shareholders in 3Q across share purchases and buybacks. Cenovus reached its net-debt target of C$4 billion in July, which sets the stage for returning 100% of excess free funds flow to shareholders starting with 3Q and beyond. Considering its valuation, dividend and potential, we would be fine buying some, within the context of the cyclical energy sector. 
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free  

He owns and likes both. The difference is that SU has downstream operations with gas stations. Cenovus is integrated with long-life reserves in production plus many refineries (which has suffered major compression), so the upstream looks attractive. Both have great balance sheets and free cash flows and pay similar dividends. Another difference: it's unlikely Suncor can be bought whereas maybe Cenovus could. He gives the edge to Suncor.

Share price valuation is reasonable. Cash flow multiples are reasonable, but there are better names in energy. Would look elsewhere. 

Oil prices weak recently. Lots of Middle East conflict. US energy producers in general have performed much worse than Canadian, partly because of debate on whether shale can sustain production. 

He owns SU, IMO and CNQ. Longer term, the sector is attractive and these companies will generate a ton of cash and strong dividend growth. You can put CVE in this category, but near-term technical questions. He'd love to see price of oil stabilize. It has in last couple of days, but that's geopolitically driven.

Give it some space. Not leading the market, but not technically broken in any way. Generally, gets a little firmer coming into winter. Comfortable owning.

Its growth projects are on track. It has reached its debt target and 100% of free cash flow can go to shareholders. He expects a double in the base dividend in April. It is cheaper than its peers along with a better balance sheet. It is levered to heavy oil and is a go to name.

Will continue to own stock. Excellent company with quality upstream production. Downstream issues continue to be an issue. Overall, business moving in the correct direction. Other companies like Suncor have been attracting like minded capital from investors. Very good management that has experience to fix downstream issues. Company also will reach final debt target, and will return 100% of cash flow to investors. 

He prefers oil stocks with a larger cap, instead of this mid-cap. Oil is trading at a low end of the range due to fears of an economic slowdown, but predicts it will be higher in a few years. CVE has sorted out their past problems, though is not as good as CNQ or Suncor.