Opinions
Brian Madden
Cominar Real Estate Inv Tr
CUF.UN-T
HOLD
Oct 10, 2019
Warming up to it. Concentrated heavily in Quebec. Mostly industrial, retail, office. Was overexposed to fashion in the malls. Can't change this quickly. New management team is good. Building condos on top of assets, to some success. Reframe how you look at it, from will it get back to a certain level, to will it go higher from here. Payout ratio not too onerous. Dividend is safe. Can hold it comfortably.
$13.730
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BUY
Quebec's biggest REIT and once a darling REIT. But they had a lot of dilutive raises which increased leverage and bloated their portfolio. Also, the dividend is too high and will likely get cut. Last year, activists forced the company to change at the board level and cut the dividend (and needs yet another cut). The payout ratio is now much better and they've hired a new CFO who should do a fine job. Now, they are considering what to do with Gare Central in Quebec City, and this may benefit shareholders. A good time to buy.
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DON'T BUY
A play on Quebec. Announced a strategic review, so potential for some sort of activity. She prefers to own a pure industrial. Summit, for example, has Montreal exposure. Retail is going to face significant challenges to creating a path to growth. Third distribution cut since 2017. Better opportunities elsewhere.
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