Stockchase Opinions

Andrew MoffsCominar Real Estate Inv TrCUF.UN.TODON'T BUYApr 30, 2020

It is a diversified REIT focused mainly in the Quebec markets. 35% of the portfolio is in retail/malls. Rent collection has been weak. He thinks they will be weak coming out of the pandemic. E-commerce has really taken off.
$8.81

Stock price when the opinion was issued

$11.74

As of Mar 02, 2022. Market Open.

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COMMENT
Interesting transaction. Takeover at a discount, which is atypical and disappointing. Hard to assess this deal, not enough detail.
HOLD
Competing bid from BAM? Opportunistic bid. Will someone else come in? Nice discount to book value. Wait until the second last day before the bid expires. BAM or Canada Pension Plan might come in, but it's a wing and a prayer right now.
SELL
He would not be buying it here because it has been going through a strategic process for quite a while. Their office and retail assets will be challenged for quite some time.
DON'T BUY
A play on Quebec. Announced a strategic review, so potential for some sort of activity. She prefers to own a pure industrial. Summit, for example, has Montreal exposure. Retail is going to face significant challenges to creating a path to growth. Third distribution cut since 2017. Better opportunities elsewhere.
HOLD
Did all the wrong things at the wrong time. Levered up, asset sales at lower prices. Balance sheet is OK. If you want deep value, other easier REITs are available with better management. Upside from here. You'll probably be fine.
BUY
They have been doing quite well with a nice yield. It's not too expensive. It could raise its payout quite a bit, and they are largely in Quebec. The province looks in good shape with a clean balance sheet.
BUY
Quebec's biggest REIT and once a darling REIT. But they had a lot of dilutive raises which increased leverage and bloated their portfolio. Also, the dividend is too high and will likely get cut. Last year, activists forced the company to change at the board level and cut the dividend (and needs yet another cut). The payout ratio is now much better and they've hired a new CFO who should do a fine job. Now, they are considering what to do with Gare Central in Quebec City, and this may benefit shareholders. A good time to buy.
HOLD
The Quebec economy is doing quite well. It has been going through a strategic change. He likes the new CFO. Retail today is a tough sector but they seem fully equipped to deal with it. They have a diversified asset base. It is a safe hold.
COMMENT
They are the best they have been. 62% is industrial with a lot of concentration in Montreal. It has a safe and improving payout ratio 74%. However, their growth is slow and their leverage is high. He would prefer H&R.
HOLD
Warming up to it. Concentrated heavily in Quebec. Mostly industrial, retail, office. Was overexposed to fashion in the malls. Can't change this quickly. New management team is good. Building condos on top of assets, to some success. Reframe how you look at it, from will it get back to a certain level, to will it go higher from here. Payout ratio not too onerous. Dividend is safe. Can hold it comfortably.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 09/19, Up 6%) There have been some management changes and the stock is slowly reacting positively. He still sees upside from here. Yield 5.5%
DON'T BUY
A diversified REIT holding assets in Quebec and Ottawa. They're done a big restructuring, cut the dividend,changed managers and sold properties outside those two areas. The industrial and office sides are doing very well, but retail is slow which worries her. Leverage is high at 54% with a lot of debt due. They aim to reduce debt to 50% by 2021. The worst is over, but doesn't see much of a stock improvement.
BUY
It has done a good job after going through a tough period when Target exited their space. They did a good job re-leasing that space. He thinks it will be a nice, stable grower. The dividend is safe and should grow from here.
TOP PICK

The valuation is low, and it's a turnaround play. It was a sleep company that needed a management shake-up. The new managers are pruning their real estate portfolio, discarding the underperformers. Their same-property growth is the highest in a decade. These initiatives are now bearing fruit. For a long time, their property growth was flat or negative. (Analysts’ price target is $13.19)