Jeff Parent B. Eng. FCSI CIM
Cognos
CSN-T
COMMENT
Mar 09, 2007
Had a correction and dropped about one third of its former uptrend. You want to see it break above $50 in a couple of months. If it doesn't, it means the trend is likely to fail and you enter a consolidation phase. It was a pretty powerful trend, which is a good sign. If it breaks through the $50, the target is $60.
Stock is nicely positioned. Have gone through a process that allows them to integrate new features much faster than their competition. This will allow them to o after large scalable opportunities on business intelligent applications.
Should be a good hold for the next year or two. Goes through different product cycles and its latest product is just getting out into the marketplace. Could have a good healthy year of strong sales.
Chart shows a strong uptrend. Broke out to a new high in Nov/06 and if this is a good break out, we should not get below the old high of about $48-$49, which would be a technical weakness. For new money, put stops below that level.
Like a lot of companies in the technology field, they tend to sell at pretty high multiples. A well positioned player in the business intelligence field and data mining. Have some excellent products out there. Multiple is too rich for him.
Ranks 288 which is roughly the middle of the pack. Earnings are expected to grow by 15% against a 21 P/E gives you a P/E to growth of about 1.3, which is fairly pricey. The business is stable and growing and there is a clear need for their product. Better opportunities elsewhere.
Feels technology will be one of the leaders going out of this turmoil. Long-term, not a bad place to be. World-class company. One of two major business intelligence players. Earnings growth is probably low teens at best but you're not paying a high multi
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