Opinions

Ian Ainsworth Cognos CSN-T PAST TOP PICK Dec 14, 2006

(A Top Pick May 6/06. Up 18.2%.) Still likes. Their transition to Cognos8 is taking time to get traction, but it is happening.

Ian Ainsworth

Owned

Unlock Rating

$48.620

Stock price when the opinion was issued

computer software processing

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BUY

Stock is nicely positioned. Have gone through a process that allows them to integrate new features much faster than their competition. This will allow them to o after large scalable opportunities on business intelligent applications.

HOLD

Should be a good hold for the next year or two. Goes through different product cycles and its latest product is just getting out into the marketplace. Could have a good healthy year of strong sales.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Has done very well in a short period of time. This company tends to do well in a softer economy. Try to buy $1-$2 cheaper.

BUY

Chart shows a strong uptrend. Broke out to a new high in Nov/06 and if this is a good break out, we should not get below the old high of about $48-$49, which would be a technical weakness. For new money, put stops below that level.

COMMENT

Had a correction and dropped about one third of its former uptrend. You want to see it break above $50 in a couple of months. If it doesn't, it means the trend is likely to fail and you enter a consolidation phase. It was a pretty powerful trend, which is a good sign. If it breaks through the $50, the target is $60.

PARTIAL SELL

It violated the upward trend line in February. Thinks the tech sector needs a break. We'll take some money off the table.

DON'T BUY

Like a lot of companies in the technology field, they tend to sell at pretty high multiples. A well positioned player in the business intelligence field and data mining. Have some excellent products out there. Multiple is too rich for him.

DON'T BUY

Ranks 288 which is roughly the middle of the pack. Earnings are expected to grow by 15% against a 21 P/E gives you a P/E to growth of about 1.3, which is fairly pricey. The business is stable and growing and there is a clear need for their product. Better opportunities elsewhere.

TOP PICK

Feels technology will be one of the leaders going out of this turmoil. Long-term, not a bad place to be. World-class company. One of two major business intelligence players. Earnings growth is probably low teens at best but you're not paying a high multi

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Ian Ainsworth Cognos CSN-T PAST TOP PICK Dec 14, 2006

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