Leslie Lundquist
Capital Power L.P.
CPA.UN-T
COMMENT
Jul 25, 2007
Power generator with assets both in Canada and the US. Many of the assets are fired by natural gas, whose prices have gone up faster than power contracts. In the short term, there is very little risk, but longer term you have to wonder about the currency exposure.
Have about 20 power facilities in Canada and the US. Recently cut its distribution with their payout ratio at about 75%-80%. Their parent recently spun off another entity Capital Power, which has a lower payout ratio but greater growth prospects. It also owns 30% of this company. The 2 may merge in 2011.
Created Capital Power (CPX-T), which becomes the parent as well as having the management contract. Cut distributions just before the Capital Power IPO and thinks the new distribution will be sustainable over a 5-year period.
Payout ratio went from 67 to 112 and down from $20 to $18.93 in about a week. Is it a Sell? When the payout goes beyond what they can afford, you know something is going to happen. Chart trend line looks like it is holding at about$19, the level back in September/October. Likes the utilities sector.