Costco Wholesale CorporationCOSTWAITDec 17, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Sep 03, 2026. Market Open.
Has traded at a high valuation pretty much since it went public. Good luck trying to pick a perfect valuation entry point. He invests in companies that can invest cashflows at high rates of return over decades. Stealing market share from low- and middle-end grocery stores. Adding services, such as Medicare plans in the US. Same-store sales growth 7-8% a year.
Deserves to trade at a high multiple because of business durability over the long term. Yield is 0.60%.
Both great companies, but both very expensive. COST is over 50x PE, and WMT's in the 40s. Fairly low-margin model. Reliant on the consumer, and everyone's affected when that consumer is struggling.
WMT reported today. Earnings were OK, but projections on future quarters were tough. High fuel prices were highlighted.
No valuation concerns, as it's been expensive every day he's looked at it over 30 years. Compounded shareholder total return of 17.5% since its IPO. Third-largest retailer in the world. Procurement clout and supply-chain efficiencies produce gross margins of 11%. Still expanding store count. Periodically increases membership fees. Superior same-store sales performance driven by traffic and basket size.
Lots of ways to win. Yield is 0.59%.
If you separate the valuation of COST and the business of COST, there aren't too many businesses that are better. Phenomenal business because it creates so much value for its customers, especially in these times of inflation. As for growth potential, still expanding into new markets, so really good growth profile.
Valuation becomes the sticking point. Trading at 40x PE, too rich for the cashflow. Doesn't think it'll get down to 30x PE, but perhaps 35x. For investment success in any stock, you really need to get earnings growth and multiple expansion. Those are the twin engines of your compounding. If you get earnings growth but it's less than expected, the multiple can contract and your gain is zero. Watch and wait on this one.