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Costco Wholesale CorporationCOSTWAITJul 25, 2024Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 16, 2026. Market Open.
Both great companies, but both very expensive. COST is over 50x PE, and WMT's in the 40s. Fairly low-margin model. Reliant on the consumer, and everyone's affected when that consumer is struggling.
WMT reported today. Earnings were OK, but projections on future quarters were tough. High fuel prices were highlighted.
No valuation concerns, as it's been expensive every day he's looked at it over 30 years. Compounded shareholder total return of 17.5% since its IPO. Third-largest retailer in the world. Procurement clout and supply-chain efficiencies produce gross margins of 11%. Still expanding store count. Periodically increases membership fees. Superior same-store sales performance driven by traffic and basket size.
Lots of ways to win. Yield is 0.59%.
A good name to hold in consumer staples when people panic about market volatility, recession, or the like. Defensive plus steady growth. Runup since January, now trending sideways. Business model is what makes it stand out.
Sees ~11-12% upside from here. Of course, that could change. Ranks 10/10 for her.
Like an oasis in the consumer desert. Its value proposition is that it's the cheapest scale-buyer, and passes savings along to the consumer. A unit growth story. Trades at almost 50x earnings.
When you think of growth stocks, think of their PEG ratios. This one is definitely on the upper end. Though quality of the business is about as good as it comes, there's a better entry point to be had.
There are 2 or 3 smaller brands that do the same thing, such as Sam's Club. COST used to trade in the 30s, but now it's closer to 50x. So if you own it today, you have to be ready for the 20-30% drawdown on just mean reversion on the multiple.