Costco Wholesale CorporationCOSTWAITJul 25, 2024Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Sep 10, 2026. Market Open.
World's third-largest retailer. High traffic, repeat business, superior same-store sales growth in high single digits. Likes the recurring membership fees, with ~92% retention rate. Likes the procurement clout and narrow assortment of goods. Pretty good gross margins of 11%, and ~30% ROE.
Seems to trade at a high multiple, and this scares people. But it's compounded at 17-18% since the IPO in 1985. Any day that ends in "y" is a good day to buy. Yield is 0.64%.
Has traded at a high valuation pretty much since it went public. Good luck trying to pick a perfect valuation entry point. He invests in companies that can invest cashflows at high rates of return over decades. Stealing market share from low- and middle-end grocery stores. Adding services, such as Medicare plans in the US. Same-store sales growth 7-8% a year.
Deserves to trade at a high multiple because of business durability over the long term. Yield is 0.60%.
Both great companies, but both very expensive. COST is over 50x PE, and WMT's in the 40s. Fairly low-margin model. Reliant on the consumer, and everyone's affected when that consumer is struggling.
WMT reported today. Earnings were OK, but projections on future quarters were tough. High fuel prices were highlighted.
Like an oasis in the consumer desert. Its value proposition is that it's the cheapest scale-buyer, and passes savings along to the consumer. A unit growth story. Trades at almost 50x earnings.
When you think of growth stocks, think of their PEG ratios. This one is definitely on the upper end. Though quality of the business is about as good as it comes, there's a better entry point to be had.
There are 2 or 3 smaller brands that do the same thing, such as Sam's Club. COST used to trade in the 30s, but now it's closer to 50x. So if you own it today, you have to be ready for the 20-30% drawdown on just mean reversion on the multiple.