Costco Wholesale CorporationCOSTBUYMay 17, 2018Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Sep 11, 2026. Market Open.
World's third-largest retailer. High traffic, repeat business, superior same-store sales growth in high single digits. Likes the recurring membership fees, with ~92% retention rate. Likes the procurement clout and narrow assortment of goods. Pretty good gross margins of 11%, and ~30% ROE.
Seems to trade at a high multiple, and this scares people. But it's compounded at 17-18% since the IPO in 1985. Any day that ends in "y" is a good day to buy. Yield is 0.64%.
Has traded at a high valuation pretty much since it went public. Good luck trying to pick a perfect valuation entry point. He invests in companies that can invest cashflows at high rates of return over decades. Stealing market share from low- and middle-end grocery stores. Adding services, such as Medicare plans in the US. Same-store sales growth 7-8% a year.
Deserves to trade at a high multiple because of business durability over the long term. Yield is 0.60%.
Both great companies, but both very expensive. COST is over 50x PE, and WMT's in the 40s. Fairly low-margin model. Reliant on the consumer, and everyone's affected when that consumer is struggling.
WMT reported today. Earnings were OK, but projections on future quarters were tough. High fuel prices were highlighted.
It is interesting. He has liked the company for several years but it has always had a rich valuation. If you are a growth investor and can buy this high multiple stock and it will do well. They have positive quarter to quarter earnings numbers. 25% of revenue comes from memberships and have an over a 90% renewal rate as recurring revenue. When you have so many members, how many more can you attract? They have done well to weather retail threats. They run at half the profit margin to their competitors. The recent membership increase is a positive if you are a shareholder. There were 19 Million card carrying members in 2016.