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Costco Wholesale CorporationCOSTHOLDJun 20, 2017Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 18, 2026. Market Open.
Both great companies, but both very expensive. COST is over 50x PE, and WMT's in the 40s. Fairly low-margin model. Reliant on the consumer, and everyone's affected when that consumer is struggling.
WMT reported today. Earnings were OK, but projections on future quarters were tough. High fuel prices were highlighted.
No valuation concerns, as it's been expensive every day he's looked at it over 30 years. Compounded shareholder total return of 17.5% since its IPO. Third-largest retailer in the world. Procurement clout and supply-chain efficiencies produce gross margins of 11%. Still expanding store count. Periodically increases membership fees. Superior same-store sales performance driven by traffic and basket size.
Lots of ways to win. Yield is 0.59%.
A good name to hold in consumer staples when people panic about market volatility, recession, or the like. Defensive plus steady growth. Runup since January, now trending sideways. Business model is what makes it stand out.
Sees ~11-12% upside from here. Of course, that could change. Ranks 10/10 for her.
Bricks and mortar retail in general has been under pressure all year. He has focused on Internet retailers such as Amazon (AMZN-Q). However, he does have a small holding on this one. It has a pretty defendable position in the big box club stores. Just dropped 10%, and he is not happy to see anything drop that much. This is basically trading right on its 200-day moving average. When Amazon acquired Whole Foods, every retailer within shooting distance, got taken out to the woodshed. He would use a 200-day moving average as a Stop. In the short run, there was a knee-jerk rejection, and some companies will likely rise out of that. Feels this company is less likely to be hurt than some of the other big grocers.