Costco Wholesale CorporationCOSTHOLDJun 20, 2017Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Sep 11, 2026. Market Open.
World's third-largest retailer. High traffic, repeat business, superior same-store sales growth in high single digits. Likes the recurring membership fees, with ~92% retention rate. Likes the procurement clout and narrow assortment of goods. Pretty good gross margins of 11%, and ~30% ROE.
Seems to trade at a high multiple, and this scares people. But it's compounded at 17-18% since the IPO in 1985. Any day that ends in "y" is a good day to buy. Yield is 0.64%.
Has traded at a high valuation pretty much since it went public. Good luck trying to pick a perfect valuation entry point. He invests in companies that can invest cashflows at high rates of return over decades. Stealing market share from low- and middle-end grocery stores. Adding services, such as Medicare plans in the US. Same-store sales growth 7-8% a year.
Deserves to trade at a high multiple because of business durability over the long term. Yield is 0.60%.
Both great companies, but both very expensive. COST is over 50x PE, and WMT's in the 40s. Fairly low-margin model. Reliant on the consumer, and everyone's affected when that consumer is struggling.
WMT reported today. Earnings were OK, but projections on future quarters were tough. High fuel prices were highlighted.
Bricks and mortar retail in general has been under pressure all year. He has focused on Internet retailers such as Amazon (AMZN-Q). However, he does have a small holding on this one. It has a pretty defendable position in the big box club stores. Just dropped 10%, and he is not happy to see anything drop that much. This is basically trading right on its 200-day moving average. When Amazon acquired Whole Foods, every retailer within shooting distance, got taken out to the woodshed. He would use a 200-day moving average as a Stop. In the short run, there was a knee-jerk rejection, and some companies will likely rise out of that. Feels this company is less likely to be hurt than some of the other big grocers.