Costco Wholesale CorporationCOSTCOMMENTJan 27, 2017Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Sep 11, 2026. Market Open.
World's third-largest retailer. High traffic, repeat business, superior same-store sales growth in high single digits. Likes the recurring membership fees, with ~92% retention rate. Likes the procurement clout and narrow assortment of goods. Pretty good gross margins of 11%, and ~30% ROE.
Seems to trade at a high multiple, and this scares people. But it's compounded at 17-18% since the IPO in 1985. Any day that ends in "y" is a good day to buy. Yield is 0.64%.
Has traded at a high valuation pretty much since it went public. Good luck trying to pick a perfect valuation entry point. He invests in companies that can invest cashflows at high rates of return over decades. Stealing market share from low- and middle-end grocery stores. Adding services, such as Medicare plans in the US. Same-store sales growth 7-8% a year.
Deserves to trade at a high multiple because of business durability over the long term. Yield is 0.60%.
Both great companies, but both very expensive. COST is over 50x PE, and WMT's in the 40s. Fairly low-margin model. Reliant on the consumer, and everyone's affected when that consumer is struggling.
WMT reported today. Earnings were OK, but projections on future quarters were tough. High fuel prices were highlighted.
The low-priced leader, and is reflected in their numbers as margins are about half of their competitors. That model only works if there is high turnover and it is a margin game on each unit. The challenge is, there is no buffer to reduce prices should inventory stay on the shelves. They have done a great job at picking the right items to get them off the shelves quickly. About 25% of revenues comes from membership fees, and they have a 90% renewal rate. Their ability to grow is somewhat limited. This will always be expensive, so if you are a value investor, you would generally not go into this.