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Costco Wholesale CorporationCOSTCOMMENTJan 27, 2017Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 18, 2026. Market Open.
Both great companies, but both very expensive. COST is over 50x PE, and WMT's in the 40s. Fairly low-margin model. Reliant on the consumer, and everyone's affected when that consumer is struggling.
WMT reported today. Earnings were OK, but projections on future quarters were tough. High fuel prices were highlighted.
No valuation concerns, as it's been expensive every day he's looked at it over 30 years. Compounded shareholder total return of 17.5% since its IPO. Third-largest retailer in the world. Procurement clout and supply-chain efficiencies produce gross margins of 11%. Still expanding store count. Periodically increases membership fees. Superior same-store sales performance driven by traffic and basket size.
Lots of ways to win. Yield is 0.59%.
A good name to hold in consumer staples when people panic about market volatility, recession, or the like. Defensive plus steady growth. Runup since January, now trending sideways. Business model is what makes it stand out.
Sees ~11-12% upside from here. Of course, that could change. Ranks 10/10 for her.
The low-priced leader, and is reflected in their numbers as margins are about half of their competitors. That model only works if there is high turnover and it is a margin game on each unit. The challenge is, there is no buffer to reduce prices should inventory stay on the shelves. They have done a great job at picking the right items to get them off the shelves quickly. About 25% of revenues comes from membership fees, and they have a 90% renewal rate. Their ability to grow is somewhat limited. This will always be expensive, so if you are a value investor, you would generally not go into this.