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Costco Wholesale CorporationCOSTCOMMENTJun 05, 2015Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 16, 2026. Market Open.
Both great companies, but both very expensive. COST is over 50x PE, and WMT's in the 40s. Fairly low-margin model. Reliant on the consumer, and everyone's affected when that consumer is struggling.
WMT reported today. Earnings were OK, but projections on future quarters were tough. High fuel prices were highlighted.
No valuation concerns, as it's been expensive every day he's looked at it over 30 years. Compounded shareholder total return of 17.5% since its IPO. Third-largest retailer in the world. Procurement clout and supply-chain efficiencies produce gross margins of 11%. Still expanding store count. Periodically increases membership fees. Superior same-store sales performance driven by traffic and basket size.
Lots of ways to win. Yield is 0.59%.
A good name to hold in consumer staples when people panic about market volatility, recession, or the like. Defensive plus steady growth. Runup since January, now trending sideways. Business model is what makes it stand out.
Sees ~11-12% upside from here. Of course, that could change. Ranks 10/10 for her.
When you look at this and how they are different from some of their competitors, they are the low-priced leader. This is a high turnover model in terms of things sitting on their shelves, so they discount them compared to their competitors. When you own a name like this and things slow down, because their pricing is so aggressive they don’t have much of a buffer to cut prices. That can put significant pressure on the stock price. The recent drop in the stock price, he feels, is because of profit taking. This is rich on a valuation basis, and the dividend yield is not worth paying that premium.