50% off Premium Yearly
Costco Wholesale CorporationCOSTCOMMENTJan 16, 2015Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 16, 2026. Market Open.
Both great companies, but both very expensive. COST is over 50x PE, and WMT's in the 40s. Fairly low-margin model. Reliant on the consumer, and everyone's affected when that consumer is struggling.
WMT reported today. Earnings were OK, but projections on future quarters were tough. High fuel prices were highlighted.
No valuation concerns, as it's been expensive every day he's looked at it over 30 years. Compounded shareholder total return of 17.5% since its IPO. Third-largest retailer in the world. Procurement clout and supply-chain efficiencies produce gross margins of 11%. Still expanding store count. Periodically increases membership fees. Superior same-store sales performance driven by traffic and basket size.
Lots of ways to win. Yield is 0.59%.
A good name to hold in consumer staples when people panic about market volatility, recession, or the like. Defensive plus steady growth. Runup since January, now trending sideways. Business model is what makes it stand out.
Sees ~11-12% upside from here. Of course, that could change. Ranks 10/10 for her.
Their business model is somewhat unique in that they are the low cost leaders. The downside of that is that margins are half of their competitors. If the economy starts to slow down, this company doesn’t have the ability to cut prices to move inventory. The only way you can run a model with low margins, is to be moving a lot of units. If we are expecting an economic slowdown, this company will not have the ability to cut prices. Opened about 30 stores last year and are projecting to do the same this year. These store openings will have a little bit of weight on their expenditures, so some of their cash will be used there. Until these are done, there won’t be any major uptick.