Gordon Reid Costco Wholesale Corporation COST-Q DON'T BUY Mar 18, 2025

Profitability is improving; expanding due to e-commerce growth, Kirkland signature, and ad revenue. Reputable brand. Opens 25-30 stores a year. Adding footprint in China. Likes the stability and steady growth. Performs well even in uncertain markets. Impressive membership renewal rate over 90%, and that recurring revenue is a major strength. Sales are still growing from both price and traffic increases. Yield is 0.51%.

They boast profits and growth, and shares are -12% in the past month, making this a buy. No, it's not rolling over. Buy some now, and buy some next week.

Managed to combine recurring revenue (membership fees) with traditional retail. Business model is still the best in the retail space. Big push toward lower-cost merchandisers. Second to none in its ability to not only survive, but thrive, in what could be a difficult economic environment. Yield is 0.48%.

Any time it opens up a store, it's successful. Model is easy to replicate in other countries. Exceptional customer loyalty. Produce will probably be impacted less by tariffs, as it's sourced locally; hardware goods may be impacted.

Recently sold. PEG ratio just got too high.

They will survive this tariff war, because they can source cheap, bulk products.

Great company and franchise, but valuation got expensive.

It reports tomorrow. No matter how good the quarter will be, it will sell off as it always does after a quarter. Buy after the report.

Wonderful business, though not a good valuation (and that's the orange flag). PE ratio is in the 40s if not the 50s, lots of growth already priced in. Even 30x PE is probably a bit rich. Fantastic job increasing cashflow per share. If you own it, hold on (again, from Charlie Munger, "do not interrupt compounding unnecessarily").

Growth is driven by steady cadence of new-store expansion. Good traffic. About 9% compounded rate of sales growth over the last decade. Earnings have grown ~13%. Always looks expensive compared to peers, but that reflects its enduring, sustainable competitive advantage. Any day that ends in "y" is a good day to buy. Yield is 0.52%.