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Costco Wholesale CorporationCOSTWATCHJul 21, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 15, 2026. Market Open.
Both great companies, but both very expensive. COST is over 50x PE, and WMT's in the 40s. Fairly low-margin model. Reliant on the consumer, and everyone's affected when that consumer is struggling.
WMT reported today. Earnings were OK, but projections on future quarters were tough. High fuel prices were highlighted.
No valuation concerns, as it's been expensive every day he's looked at it over 30 years. Compounded shareholder total return of 17.5% since its IPO. Third-largest retailer in the world. Procurement clout and supply-chain efficiencies produce gross margins of 11%. Still expanding store count. Periodically increases membership fees. Superior same-store sales performance driven by traffic and basket size.
Lots of ways to win. Yield is 0.59%.
A good name to hold in consumer staples when people panic about market volatility, recession, or the like. Defensive plus steady growth. Runup since January, now trending sideways. Business model is what makes it stand out.
Sees ~11-12% upside from here. Of course, that could change. Ranks 10/10 for her.
In addition to the 200-day MA, he looks at peaks and troughs. Look at the last low and the last high. The next high hit the previous high, so that's two relatively similar peaks. The stock may be below the 200-day MA (1st rule to sell), but it hasn't dropped below the last trough (2nd rule to sell). As long as it holds above the last trough, you're safe.
Don't go into full panic right now. Hold for now; if it breaks that second rule, then get out.