Canadian Oil Sands (COS.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Canadian Oil Sands (COS.TO)

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BUY ON WEAKNESS

A net asset value play on the long term potential of the oil sands. Has had a very good run and the outlook is quite good. Expects distributions to go up in 2006. Should have very good production growth. Not cheap, so wait and see if there is a bit of a pull back here.

BUY

This is a very important call on oil on this investment. Won't be any further distribution increases this year. Expects there will be a lot of pressure on them to increase next year. Their 1st objective is to pay down debt.

DON'T BUY

You are essentially paying for the reserve life in this asset. Fairly valued at this point.

BUY

Have been criticized for not increasing their distribution. Have been paying down debt instead. A fairly conservative mechanism. Has a great future. The oil sands is one of Canada's great assets.

HOLD

Canadian Oil Sands is reasonably valued. Sensitive to oil prices. If you think oil is going to stay at $65, this is cheap. We continue to hold.

BUY

Firmly convinced the oil story is a secular story more than a cyclical story, so you want to remain. A good operator.

DON'T BUY

Has not been a favourite as he is buying income trusts for the income and this one doesn't pay out enough. Has long lived assets, but you will have to wait a long time to get your income out of them.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

At current prices, it's probably a little bit ahead of itself. It's the big cap pure play on the Athabaskan oil sands.

WEAK BUY

Sold because the price was getting too high. An interesting company with its long life reserve index giving it long term production visibility. Getting a bit rich in valuations. Can move higher in the short term.

BUY

Their stage 3 upgrader has been much delayed and over budget over the last 2/3 years. It is now about 90% complete and will be completed this time next year. Expects Syncrude production (they own 37%) will ramp up to over 300,000 a day. $2 distribution will likely move to $5/6 in '06.

HOLD

The only pure play way to get exposure to the oil sands through the syncrude project. Although it is a trust and gives a yield, it is probably being bought as an oil call. If you think that oil is going to continue to be strong, it could be a very good buy. On the other hand, it could be very volatile.

BUY

Basically a net asset play. Own a significant holding in the syncrude tar sands project in Fort McMurray. Expecting their upgrade expansion will be completed in mid 2006. This will create a dramatic increase in production.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

The oil sands are fantastic at these prices. You'll see more cash flow as the year goes on. Feels there's been a ton of excitement on the oil sands in the last year. Would prefer to buy it on a pullback.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

An excellent long term investment. Would like to see a pull back to where it was several months ago.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Mar 30/05. Up 13%.) A core holding for most portfolios. Low payout ratio, but the ratio is likely to increase when they get their debt down to $1.2 billion. Probably the 1st quarter. If you can pick it up anywhere below $80 it's a steal.

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Canadian Oil Sands (COS.TO)