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Canadian Oil Sands (COS.TO)

COMMENT
Thinks there’s a chance the stock will split at this level, but this would have no impact on the fundamental value of the company.
BUY
The SEC in the US is expected to allow reserves in oil sands to be included which will create a lot of activity. If you wait until June it will be too late.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick June 3/05. Up 60% plus distributions.) Has an incredibly long reserve life.
BUY
Pays a very low distribution which reflects the value people have placed on the company. Very low risk. Expected to grow its production over the next several years. As it pays down its debt from cashflow, it''ll have more cash available for distribution. Good long term hold.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Probably pretty fully valued. Accumulate on dips on really bad days when oil prices are down or when the TSX oil sector is really getting killed.
TOP PICK
Has about a 35% holding in the Syncrude oil sands project which is a pure play on oil sands growth, so there is significant leverage there. Essentially a net asset value play. Long reserve life. Expects it to be up to full capacity by the end of 2006. Good value at these levels.
HOLD
The only pure play in the syncrude oil project. The distribution increase had been factored into the share price and once it was announced, the stock price fell back. The driver to this investment would be energy prices.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Announced a nice distribution increase, but unfortunately there is some volatility in the commodity price and it is getting dragged down with this. Stage 3 expansion is about 95% complete and expects full production from it by mid '06. Buy on any weakness where oil prices fall to the $50/60 range.
BUY
For a long term investment in energy, it's pretty hard to ignore the oil sands. This one came out with very good numbers and they have strongly growing production.
BUY
A good name for a pure play in the oil sands.
BUY
A direct play on oil and as a result is probably the highest visibility trust in the market. Has 25/50 years of reserves. Has gone through a phase 3 expansion which has cost billions of dollars and they have loaded up the balance sheet. They are now taking advantage of these high prices and are paying down their debt.
TOP PICK
90% through the expansion of stage 3. There will likely be a distribution increase. Will be paying down some debt.
WAIT
With oi above $60, oil sands is getting a lot more attention. This one is a long term play, so be prepared to stay with it for a number of years. Given today's pricing environment and that you have to live through a 5/10 year cycle before actually seeing real production, it might be a little premature.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Definetly sees a distribution increase at the end of 06, from $2 to $4. Has been a great performer. Would be buying on any pull back. The only negative is natural gas, as there has been a doubling in natural gas prices but this is a short term problem.
BUY
Any portfolio with energy exposure needs to have oil sands exposure. Likes both Western Oil Sands (WTO-T) and Canadian Oil Sands (COS.UN-T). Use trailing stop losses and continue to ratchet them higher. This lets you hold as long as it continues to climb.
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