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Canadian Oil Sands (COS.TO)

BUY
Continues to be constructive on the oil price. Distributions should continue to increase.
BUY
Long life reserves. Can see higher highs over the next 6/12 months.
BUY
One of the best growth stories in Canada. Company has a stated policy of bringing their debt down to $1.3/1.4 billion area. Anticipated it will happen in the 1st quarter of 2007. Following that, he expects there would be further distribution increases.
BUY
The largest holder of Syncrude. Well-established in the oil sands. Most of its capital expenditures is behind it. Throwing off tons of cash. Very safe place.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
An excellent company. Owns about 35% of the Syncrude oil sands project. Good production costs. Very leveraged to oil prices. 3% yield, but not trading as a royalty trust but more as a long-term equity. Fairly expensive. Try to buy below $30.
BUY
35% in the Syncrude oil sands project. Yield is low as they have focused on paying down debt rather than increasing distributions. Acquiring Canada Southern Petroleum which has reserves in the high Arctic.
WAIT
This is his pure play on the Athabascan oil sands. However, he has taken a little bit of money off the table because it became overvalued. In the long run, the oil sands is the best place to be in the energy markets. No exploration/political risks.
WEAK BUY
Prefers Suncor (SU-T) as it is a purer play. From an ecological point of view and growing their oil production is a lot more cleaner structure.
BUY
Will continue to be strong based on high oil prices. Attempting to secure a natural gas by making an offer for Canada Southern. A good price.
BUY
Moving into the natural gas area with their offer to buy Canada Southern Petroleum (CSW-T). One of your best giant bets on the oil cents.
BUY
Stock price will be based on the price of oil. Construction of their oil sands operation was pretty much financed by debt. They’ve paid a lot of this down very rapidly and are now almost normalized. Payouts will be bumped dramatically which is probably priced in.
DON'T BUY
The problem with this company is its balance sheet. He uses financial ratios and this company has a very weak balance sheet. Remember, they have to build plant and equipment which costs billions of dollars. His model price is a little lower than the current price.
HOLD
Purest play on the Canadian oil sands. Profitability is starting to go up quite high as they finish building their expansion and pay down their debt. Distributions will grow a lot.
BUY
Little bit of a short-term bump here, but this is a long-term play where you are going to have to buy, tuck it away and leave it alone.
BUY
Has pulled back because of problems with a processing unit. A great company. Just increased its distribution. A solid, long-term asset.
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