Canadian Natural RsrcsCNQ.TOSTRONG BUYNov 20, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Aug 04, 2026. Market Open.
Great company and he's made some $$ in it. That said, 80% of the variability will be the price of oil. Oil is jumping all over (to say the least ;). Thinks oil will stay up here, and CNQ should do fairly well. He's comfortable riding out the cyclicality, but have it as just one part of a diversified portfolio.
Long-term outlook for crude oil is bearish. When he looks at the forward price of crude past 2030, it's in the $50s (and could get into $40s depending on supply dynamics).
Short term, sure, buy dips in the energy space. Is this a name he'd be comfortable buying here and holding for 5-10 years? Absolutely not.
Likes it at almost every investment cycle. (She'd choose it as a Top Pick on every Market Call appearance if they let her ;) Premium assets, premium management, low decline rate. Consistent cashflow.
Makes $$ when oil is $50. Higher oil price means that it can pay down debt faster and buy back more shares. A stock to own for the next 50 years. Yield is 4.27%, and dividend is growing.
Oil prices are everywhere, and you have to be comfortable with that. Probably not a bad idea to buy when oil is ~$70 and everyone thinks the worst has passed. Trades in line with peers. Balance sheet in very good shape. 25% FCF from 2025-2027, on 3% production growth. Nice dividend. Even if oil goes down, it's profitable down to WTI at $50.
If you think oil's going down, you don't want to buy this stock. It's a coin toss right now with oil at $70. There are easier risk/reward places than oil stocks right now.
Unique company. Tends to be very cyclical, but its counter-cyclical framework gives it a huge edge. Amazing business that gushes cash. Loves it. Robust dividend. As balance sheet comes down, will allocate more capital to share buybacks, and that will be accretive to EPS.
If you own, sit tight and let it work. If coming in fresh, wait for a bigger pullback.
He won't bet on commodities on bad news. They grow production every year and watch costs. They have giant reserves. Long term, a headwind will be growing demand for EVs, as in China. Oil will eventually revert to $50-60 and this stock will correct a bit. CNQ can grow production 3-5% a year and its dividend 5-10%. He will own this long term. Is doing all the right things.
Looks just fine technically. All its moving averages have gone higher, taking out the 3 most recent highs. IMO, SU, and CVE are also behaving well. Nothing wrong with a 4% yield that will grow probably 20+% a year over the next 5 years. Darn attractive, great inflation hedge.
Historically in a commodity bull market, gold moves first, metals move second, and energy moves third. Take a look at the XEG, which has just broken out of a big range.