Canadian Natural RsrcsCNQ.TOTOP PICKAug 12, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Sep 16, 2026. Market Open.
Oil reserves in a safe haven. Well run. If peace breaks out in the Middle East, all the energy names could retrace somewhat; if conflict escalates, then oil will run and you should take profits along the way.
If you're looking at a 3-10 year investment, by all means buy some energy here. But if you're looking for a 3-6 month trade, you have to be careful with these politically charged components of the market.
He can't tell you where the price of oil is going. He does know that demand continues to increase. One of the best capital allocators in the O&G space. Decades and decades of reserves. Increased dividend for 25-26 consecutive years.
For a generalist, long-term investor, trust the management of the quality leader. When oil turns down, this name will hold up better. If there was a pullback for no good reason, he'd buy more. Be patient and wait for your opportunity.
The question was on his preference between Suncor and CNQ. He would side with Suncor since it has more upside and CNQ's price is approaching fair value. Suncor has underperformed over the past week with the CEO stepping down. He had guided the company to a major turn-around. If the next CEO can continue to run the company as well as it has been running then he sees a 40% upside two years out.
Great company and he's made some $$ in it. That said, 80% of the variability will be the price of oil. Oil is jumping all over (to say the least ;). Thinks oil will stay up here, and CNQ should do fairly well. He's comfortable riding out the cyclicality, but have it as just one part of a diversified portfolio.
There is simply no better diversified company in the Canadian energy sector than CNQ. Quarterly cash reserves are growing again despite relatively lower energy prices, shares being bought back and debt retired -- good cash flow. It trades at 13x earnings, 2.1x book and supports a 20% ROE. Amazingly, the company has increased dividends for 25 consecutive years and the current yield is backed by a payout ratio under 60% of cash flow. We recommend setting a stop-loss at $32.00, looking to achieve $52.50 -- upside potential of 26%. Yield 5.7%
(Analysts’ price target is $52.17)