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Canadian Natural RsrcsCNQ.TOCOMMENTNov 18, 2014Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Aug 26, 2026. Market Open.
Oil reserves in a safe haven. Well run. If peace breaks out in the Middle East, all the energy names could retrace somewhat; if conflict escalates, then oil will run and you should take profits along the way.
If you're looking at a 3-10 year investment, by all means buy some energy here. But if you're looking for a 3-6 month trade, you have to be careful with these politically charged components of the market.
He can't tell you where the price of oil is going. He does know that demand continues to increase. One of the best capital allocators in the O&G space. Decades and decades of reserves. Increased dividend for 25-26 consecutive years.
For a generalist, long-term investor, trust the management of the quality leader. When oil turns down, this name will hold up better. If there was a pullback for no good reason, he'd buy more. Be patient and wait for your opportunity.
The question was on his preference between Suncor and CNQ. He would side with Suncor since it has more upside and CNQ's price is approaching fair value. Suncor has underperformed over the past week with the CEO stepping down. He had guided the company to a major turn-around. If the next CEO can continue to run the company as well as it has been running then he sees a 40% upside two years out.
Great company and he's made some $$ in it. That said, 80% of the variability will be the price of oil. Oil is jumping all over (to say the least ;). Thinks oil will stay up here, and CNQ should do fairly well. He's comfortable riding out the cyclicality, but have it as just one part of a diversified portfolio.
Long-term outlook for crude oil is bearish. When he looks at the forward price of crude past 2030, it's in the $50s (and could get into $40s depending on supply dynamics).
Short term, sure, buy dips in the energy space. Is this a name he'd be comfortable buying here and holding for 5-10 years? Absolutely not.
What is really important to look at in oil companies is Cost per Barrel. (He had this information in a Globe column 2 weeks ago.) This is the key number. With oil at around $74-$75, this is a time you have to be picking away at these types of things. On the other hand, maybe you should wait a month or so when oil moves up from $74, and then start picking away. There is some value here right now.