NYSE:CHL

China Mobile Hong Kong (CHL)

27.10
-0.00 (0.00%)
as of Jan 8, 2021, 11:00:09 pm Market Open.
23 watching
0
COMMENT

Doesn’t own any telcos. He does like the Chinese market and he is a believer in the China story and that it will be successful, so this company will probably perform.

DON'T BUY

The positive is that they have signed an agreement with Apple (APPL-Q), but the percentage of its subscribers that can afford Apple is not that great. Shanghai stock market has done very, very poorly and continues to do so and they are inextricably tied into that.

BUY

Biggest mobile company in the world. Gone sideways for 5 years. Dividend is safe. Longer term if you hold this, you will be proven to be right.

COMMENT

The fundamental story on this is that it is, by far and away, the biggest global telecom company. Doing very, very well. Fundamentally, the Chinese government is trying to regulate, to ensure that China Telecom and China Unicom become much more significant in the market, but taking away some of the power that this company has. China also regulated that this company adopt a “list of quality” strategy for wireless telecom and that really didn’t work out. Stock has not moved very well in the last few years but if you take a longer-term view this is a very good story and a dividend is very safe. You can also buy it in the low $40. Solid in the high $50 but, once it breaks out above $55, it will run for quite a while.

DON'T BUY

$200 billion market cap. He has never been a huge fan of the company. You always want to minimize government intervention and it combines to compound regulatory risk. Their earnings growth has not been that great.

BUY

(Market Call Minute.) A dreadful performer but are continuing to add large numbers of new subscribers.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Fairly expensive. You buy this in the $48-$49 range. Pays a very attractive dividend. Has substantially more cash than debt, so the sustainability of the 4.2% dividend is almost guaranteed. The big challenge is that they are transitioning into a company that can support the iPhone. They need to transition the network and they have the capital to do it.

WEAK BUY

Not sure about the mobile market in China right now. A very competitive space. They have been frustrating stock for investors. When the hang sang break out, this could push higher than you think.

BUY

Biggest telephone company globally and has no debt. Good dividend. Price for this ranges anywhere between $47 and $56. With this you are taking a longer-term view because the average Chinese is going to get wealthier over time and telephone companies are going figure out how to take a portion of that income.

BUY

Good quality company and the biggest mobile operator globally however, there is not a lot of growth. Earnings might even decline this year and next. Once they get through the move and migrate to 4G, you’ll start to see a pickup in earnings. Have a good relationship with their parent. They only have to pay for the infrastructure of additions for 4G, they don’t have to pay for the infrastructure of 3G, so their cost base is good.

BUY

Has the largest mobile user base globally. Revenues per user are much more stable than they have been in the past. A big subscriber base that moves from 3G to 4G is going to help them a lot on the data side. The good news on the 4G is that they are not going to have to spend the capital that is going to be spent by the parent. Very good returns and well managed company.

COMMENT
They were starting to slow down because their earnings and cash flow growth were in the 3% range. Now they are having to expand further west in China out of the urban regions and into the rural. With Nokia (NOK-N) coming forward with Samsung and iPhone being introduced, it gives them an opportunity to grow their business. Won't be the big growth story of the last 5-10 years. Good money has already been made.
BUY
Biggest mobile phone company globally. Over a long period, it has actually marked time over the last few years because the Chinese government has brought in more competition. It is making a series of higher lows. Great way to play the Chinese emerging middle class.
TOP PICK
589 Million subscribers. Great growth. Growing a subscriber base at 5 Million a month. Signed contract with Blackberry and once they get that out in their system (modify system), it is another wave for them. Good growth.
COMMENT
A lot of competition and regulatory issues, which is why it has gone sideways.
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