CanWest Global Comm. (CGS.V) Buy, Sell or Hold

CanWest Global Comm. (CGS.V)

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DON'T BUY

Not a strong acquisition target. Likes the business, but recently stepped out. On their transition to Cognos8, it didn't go as quickly as they had hoped and the stock dropped which is when he bought. Pretty much at full value now. Would be interested in the mid-$30's.

TOP PICK

Acquired Alliance Atlantis and there are some execution risks. Sum of the pieces is more valuable than where the stock is. Big leverage is the Canadian broadcasting operations. Expect it will sell off some Australian assets.

TOP PICK

Acquiring Alliance Atlantis (AAC.A-T), which was a nice deal to get them out of a troubled situation. They needed specialty assets. Balance sheet is still stretched.

DON'T BUY

The issue in the TV business is that ad rates are being threatened by Google. There is consolidation going on in the industry that is making things very competitive and therefore very difficult to squeeze out growing earnings.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Nov 9/05. No change.) When he picked these stocks, he was trying to play the Christmas bounce. All 3 failed to materialise. His suspicion is that the base has a lot longer to build. Got out at $11.

TOP PICK

All his picks are for a seasonal Santa Claus rally trade. If they move 20%, say thank you and get the heck out. Normally he wouldn't even touch this thing, but it only collapsed on the income trust issue. This is a real speculative play.

WAIT

Attempting to IPO its newspaper business, ex the National Post, into a trust. The decline in newspaper advertising is a concern.

DON'T BUY

Intends to convert to a trust without the National Post. The newspaper business tends to be fairly cyclical. National and local advertising can be quite volatile depending on the direction the economy is heading in. This will require a lot of due diligence to understand how much leverage there will be in the trust and how cyclical it will be.

HOLD

Going to spin off 28% of their newspapers with the exception of the National Post and this will be enough to retire their 10.75% debentures. Not a bad thing for shareholders. Not a fan of the newspaper business. Would not hold it longer than 3 or 4 months after the conversion.

DON'T BUY

Still considering converting to an income trust which would give it 15/20% upside. They've been getting killed by CTV.

BUY

Still a cheap stock. Feels there are still some catalysts that it will go through. Feels they will find value through trusting of operations. There is a feeling that the Australian/New Zealand operations are not growing as had been hoped, so the company might have to go through a period were it's quiet.

BUY

5 year chart shows stock acting very nicely. One year chart shows a gorgeous trend for a stock. Upward trend is well established, so technicals look very, very good. Stock has strong seasonality from end of November to end of May. In the last 10 years you would have been ahead 9 out of 10 times with an average return of 15%. Earnings are looking very strong.

BUY

From a net asset value perspective, there is lots of value. Feels there can be considerable upside from here. Even though there was weakness in conventional TV, the numbers next year should be OK.

BUY

Debt has always been a problem for this company.

DON'T BUY

Has been disappointed with the leveraging up of the company into the newspaper business. As it goes higher, they'll have to look at their holdings to see if they want to keep it for the long-term.

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CanWest Global Comm. (CGS.V)