Cameco Corporation (CCO.TO)

The best way to play uranium is to play Uranium Participation (U-T). You want to play the commodity first and wait for the other. He is not keen on uranium just yet.

Probably not a buy here. Signed a deal with China for a couple of reactors. Uranium is still in the doldrums. A dismal record in terms of operations. Hold it, but don’t buy it.

(Top Pick Jan 20/14, Down 8.93%) It violated its uptrend so he sold it.

You want to look for a confirmation of a bottom on a chart. He wants to see that it breaks out of the little consolidation period of June and July, along with some volume to support that. Also, wants to see it stay above that for a few days. If it stays above the $21.50 level for at least 3 days, then you want to buy as it breaks out.

Does not own uranium right now. Japanese restarts are taking longer than anticipated. CCO is not capturing all of the upside when uranium price move up. There is no urgency to move into uranium at this time.

If you think uranium is going to go up, he would play it through Uranium Participation (U-T). This company has had some operational issues going back 5 years or so. Also, wound down the decommissioning of the Russian nukes.

He would be reticent on this. There has been more positive news over the last few months, but a negative report yesterday sent the whole group into another dip. They are looking for supply/demand balances to still be in favour of more supply and weaker prices through until 2021. That’s a long time to wait for a cyclical commodity type play.

There is no bottom in sight for the stock because of the continuing weakness in both spot and contract prices for uranium. There is some question as to how quickly Japan is going to restart some of the nuclear power plants. They also may have put new plans on hold. That’s not the case for China and India. Europe has gone out of the nuclear power business.

If we have an inflationary economy, then you want to own all the resources, because the economy will do well relative to rising inflation. The difficulty is that the uranium price is doing the “dead cat” bounce right now. Demand for this has slowed ever since the Fukushima disaster. Dividend has stayed the same, around $0.40, so it is not like getting a big upside in the growth in income and therefore you need share price performance and the stock has not done a whole lot in a long time.

He is not in any of these. Uranium prices have been quite soft for the last few months. He is following it.

Has always had trouble with uranium, because it is not just a supply/demand metal, it is also a political metal. Has never been that successful in guessing where the uranium cycle is going to go. Even at today’s price, he would be wary of this. Lately spot prices have been weighing on the stock and the sector in general.

He was bullish on uranium last year and was on the verge of going short. Uranium headed back down on the weekend. People got too optimistic on the restart of the Japanese reactors. 2017/18 is when supply will be short. He would not own uranium stocks now.

A great one, but he prefers U-T.

It is a typical long term hold story. Uranium story was damaged by reactor in Japan, but now things are moving on.

Thinks this is a good place to enter. You have a couple of places to put a Stop in such as around $25 as well as $23. Risk/reward is really good.