CAE Inc (CAE.TO)

They are selling into two difficult areas, military where there will be budget cuts and also airlines which have their problems from time to time. In a rough patch right now and probably a bit pricey at the moment.

Has always been a conundrum for him. A Canadian technology company, which is the best in the world at what they do. The #1 seller of flight simulators globally, and have been for decades. Yet they have never been able to deliver a lot of margin on that business. It has now been morphed into a pilot training business. They are also using their simulation technology for military and, lately for medical. Have struggled to generate good profits margins.

Doesn’t expect anything to happen immediately on the stock but chart shows a long-term consolidation. Has been going sideways from the middle of 2011 and all of a sudden it broke out. It is forming a bit of a descending triangle and he feels that sooner or later it will break that. He sees $13 on this one.

Loves the company. A Canadian company with a global footprint. Have training centers all over the world. Made an acquisition and have been redeploying simulators between different sectors which have caused a problem in earnings last year. Don’t seem to ever be able to translate their success to the bottom line. She would go with Mac Donald Dettwiler (MDA-T) instead.

(Top Pick Sep 06/12, Up 14.47%) Still holds it as they are a global leader in global flight simulators and China has a rise in Asian airlines and are amenable to outsourcing training. They are branching out in to mining equipment simulators. Margins are coming up based on an acquisition.

(A Top Pick August 27/12. Up 15.35%.) Feels there are still some legs under this. People have been worried about what is going to happen on the military side because of budget restraints but he feels there will be a pickup. There has been some pick up on the civil side and there is a lot of old fleet that has to turn around as well as developing countries that are going to have to train pilots. Could easily see $12-$13 in the next 12 months.

In the sweet spot in the market. The dominant player in simulators. Buy for fundamental value. He likes the sector. It would be a bonus if it got taken over.

(A Top Pick July 17/12. Up 13.80%.) Still likes. It’s been range bound for about 1.5 years. Have a big military business and a civilian business. Military business has been held back by sequestration and fears they are going to lose government business but the programs they are on are fine. Thinks it will work itself out over time. $12 plus would be a reasonable expectation over the next year.

This one hasn’t made anybody rich for quite a long time. Their simulators are expensive but there are a lot of airplanes being sold, particularly in emerging markets and the pilots do have to be trained. Expects that every time there is an airplane accident, the company is putting more hours on the simulators for everybody. This is a good Canadian company, great technology and a world leader in its industry.

This company is in the sweet spot of the aviation market. They are a world leader in simulation technology. Pilots will be trained, more likely, on this company’s equipment than almost any other. Well-balanced between military and civil aviation. He hopes to see $14-$15 sometime over the next business cycle.

(Top Pick Mar 27/12, Up 2.20%) He is more favorable than he was earlier. We are starting to see a lot of new planes coming out of the gate and more pilots are retiring and new ones coming on. So CAE are in the sweat spot now.

Key is that they have a good balance between military and civil aviation. What is holding the stock back is legitimate worries about military budget cut backs but feels that there is pent up demand on the civil side and thinks it will expand fairly significantly.

(A Top Pick July 17/12. Down 4.18%.) Some good long-term drivers on the civilian side. Just did a big acquisition on the training side. There is a looming pilot shortage coming up. Also, have simulation in healthcare and mining. A lack of clarity on the military spending side is holding the stock back.

(Top Pick Nov 25/11, Up 4.34%) It pulled back on fears of cut backs on military spending. But they have a strong civil area.

Expects it to bounce back after softness in the civil area. Airlines are going to be replacing their fleets. Expects military contracts to be awarded also. Concerns over softness in the military side have overshadowed the strengening civil area.

This has been an enigma for so many years because it is one of the only Canadian companies in the technology space that is the best in the world at what they do yet the stock never seems to go anywhere. Have since gotten into flight training which is a large division for them. Have taken their simulator technology and moved into medical, etc. They seem to have a lot of trouble delivering earnings growth and generating free cash flow.