Blackstone Group LP (BX)

People love the yield, around 8%. They've done well putting capital to work. A long-term story for 10 years, because that's the cycle they're investing in. He looks at private equity stocks in cycle terms. A Buffett-style holding.

He likes this stock and thinks the dividend is safe. He loves the US financial space. His model price is $54.56. The yield is near 10%.

(A Top Pick Feb.23, 2017, Up 23%) The largest private equity company in the world. With $100 billion on hand, they've made astute investments and now, as the markets rise, they can exit on them. (Structured like an LP, so not everyone can own it.) Trades cheaply. It may move into the S&P which will help them.

This company does private equity and is similar to Brookfield Asset Management, which is what she owns in Canada. They are the leader in their space. They are raising cash for new funds, which is usually a good time to get into a stock like this. She is considering buying but has not yet decided whether to buy it.

(A Top Pick January 16/17. Up 20.8%.) The largest private equity company in the world. Continue to do well. Numbers came out today and they were very good. Pays a high dividend yield of 6.5%. They have been very good at buying good companies when the market was difficult. The problem he sees is that the space is too crowded. The other aspect is that they get paid through carried interest, so they are not a corporation, so they are not in the S&P. If they convert to a corporation because of the tax changes, they could maybe be included in the S&P and get a valuation bump. He would hold it to the high 40s.

It is a little bit rich. He is into the sector through KKR-N. The valuation is a bit better there and they have a nice yield. As the M&A frenzy takes hold, the whole group will be better positioned.

This is sort of a quasi-financial name. Just announced they are acquiring Pure Industrial REIT (AAR.UN-T). They are really in the sweet spot of the cycle. All their underlying funds are doing well. There is a huge opportunity for them to grow their infrastructure fund. Dividend yield of 6.7%. (Analysts' price target is $40.)

This is really focused in private equity. He prefers to invest in companies that are in public securities. In 2000, when the stock market rolled over, investors slowly stopped investing in public markets and started making private equity investments because they weren't priced every day, and were not subject to the same kind of compliance and regulations that you were in public companies. In 2013, we began a new bull market in public market equities, so he would rather invest in companies that manage public market equities rather than private equities.

A very well-managed investment group, doing all kinds of different things. He’s a bit concerned about the impact of rising rates on them. Feels the dividend is secure. Higher prices were paid for a lot of their assets, and he wonders how that responds in a higher rising rate environment. Wouldn’t be a buyer here, but would wait for it to be 20% lower before considering it.

Has done well, but not sure this is the time in the cycle when you want to own a company that looks for opportunities in a quasi-distressed market. This is a limited partnership, and for Canadians owning Limited Partnerships, there are tax repercussions. Before going into a limited partnership, you should get tax advice.

An amazing time in the cycle to buy things like this. A little more hedged to equity focus in its mandate mix. As a result of their portfolio blend, you want to buy an asset manager when markets are doing well. However, when markets are going well, they are not necessarily going to shine, because they have unhedged equities, and returns aren't the "shoot the lights out" kind of returns. They are the "protect well" type of returns. There is never a sweet spot for something like this in your portfolio. Alternatively, private equity has a really robust cycle. There is 1) an investment cycle, 2) a waiting period while they are growing and 3) a harvesting period. This is not the time when he would necessarily be jumping onto this. You want to get into these when we have had a pretty tough cycle.

(Market Call Minute). Has played this in the past but it is pretty opaque as to what you own. You don't know what the assets are.

He still owns this and likes it. It isn’t trading at a very high multiple, about 10X earnings. The tax structure of these companies is kind of weird. Not many people in the US can own them effectively. If tax rates actually fall, they may actually become corporations as opposed to the present structure. This company has been very astute at gathering assets. They have well over $100 billion that they can put to work. Unlike Canada, many US pension funds don't have the ability to actually do private equities. Great dividend yield which he thinks goes up over the next little while. 8.3% dividend yield.

Hold or Sell? He doesn’t consider the market is high. If you went back to the market highs of 2000, and if the S&P 100 was at that valuation, the S&P 100 would be at 5000. This is not the most expensive market ever. This closed at $33.26, and his model prices $53.87, a 61% upside. He likes financials.

Private equity works by you having to put capital in, but after a period of time, they have to give it back. A lot of money owned by companies like this, can effectively be under risk of having to return it. If they can’t raise additional capital, their sustainability longer-term of the dividend, is somewhat in question. The 2^nd issue is that you have a business that really makes all its money by buying when there is a recession and selling when there are frothy markets. At this point, we have very frothy markets. Anything that needs to be sold probably has been sold, and moving forward, the likelihood of performance improving may be modified lower. This is a kind of company you want to buy during a recession.