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Opinions Cameron Hurst
Blackstone Group LPBXDON'T BUYNov 07, 2017
Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 15, 2026. Market Open.
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(Note the short timeframe.) Down, but great long-term stock. Dropped on turmoil in private credit. Big names like this are still raising a lot of $$. There will be some issues from credit, but not the apocalyptic view that some have. A juggernaut.
Tim ReganHas owned this a long time. Pays a 4.5% dividend. Can be volatile, but is a long-term hold. Is a stable business.
Tim ReganLoves the company, but not the valuation. There was this rah-rah enthusiasm for private equity companies as though they'd found a miracle cure for their businesses. Lots of competition in private equity and private credit, so potentially few deals to be had and for lesser returns. If performance starts to wane, fees may be in jeopardy.
Trump's announcement yesterday that he didn't want large institutions owning individual homes hit names like this one. Long term, makes a lot of sense. But it's really been sideways to negative over the past year. 200-day MA has floated downward a bit. Higher beta.
He prefers some of the more traditional financial names such as Citi, WFC, MS, or GS.
The entire space is down ~20% over the past year, very good buying opportunities. A host of private equity, real estate, private credit. Great management team. A little under half its asset are perpetual capital (doesn't have to be paid back right away). Price of debt is coming down in the US.
Raised about $200B in last 12 months. Lots of dry powder of about $200B, which they can apply to different deals. In this marketplace, as some companies crater in price, private equity is coming in and buying fairly cheaply. Sees price around $200 in next 2-3 years. Dividend is chunky, as its businesses are variable. Yield is 3.77%.
Tim Regan#1 company in this space. Surprising, then, how inconsistent the results are. Could be just the nature of the business. Too volatile for him, but makes a lot of sense in an investor portfolio to give exposure to private equity and alternatives. Don't make it 1 of 10 core stocks; fully supports it as a piece of a larger portfolio. It's a hold.
We think it may still have room. Much will depend on interest rates but they do appear to be set to head lower. Deal activity has increased after a 'tariff pause' in April and May. Consensus still calls for very good earnings growth over the next two years.
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Chart had well over a year of going nowhere, and then broke out without retracing and went to the moon. Now it's pulling down. The next thing you'll look for is where could it land, and the chart shows that that's where it is right now -- old resistance becomes new support. His book Sideways explains why.
Chart's bouncing off that support, which is very positive. He'd be legging in. If it breaks below ~$130 or so, that's bad news. For now, it's above that, so put a leg in. Your stop loss is the old resistance level, the place to sell.
Allocations to alternative assets will only increase; they've increased 12.5x over the last 10 years (vs. 4x for regular assets), from $25 trillion today to $65 trillion by 2032. They invest big capital in areas like infrastructure and private credit. Not cheap, but worth it.
(Analysts’ price target is $140.73)
Joshua VargheseHe's invested heavily in private equity, and those businesses have grown ~15% a year, which is reflected in the stocks. No reason for this to slow down, long runway. Pick your poison, buy one or all of BN, APO, KKR, or BX. Next 5 years should be a minimum of a double.
Richard Fogler
An amazing time in the cycle to buy things like this. A little more hedged to equity focus in its mandate mix. As a result of their portfolio blend, you want to buy an asset manager when markets are doing well. However, when markets are going well, they are not necessarily going to shine, because they have unhedged equities, and returns aren't the "shoot the lights out" kind of returns. They are the "protect well" type of returns. There is never a sweet spot for something like this in your portfolio. Alternatively, private equity has a really robust cycle. There is 1) an investment cycle, 2) a waiting period while they are growing and 3) a harvesting period. This is not the time when he would necessarily be jumping onto this. You want to get into these when we have had a pretty tough cycle.