Stock Opinions by Joe Hegener, CIO & Founder, Asterozoa Capital

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COMMENT

AI hardware stocks caught in a supply chain bottleneck are going parabolic now, given so much demand and limited supply. And yet Sandisk is trading at only 9-10x and their income margin has shot up from 5% last October to now 70%. They command extreme prices. Ultimately, hardware will see competition enter this space. You can't have 5 years of backlog and 1,500 data centres by 2028 at the same time. Software: do these companies have a subscription or usage-based model? Ultimately, AI will disrupt the subs model, but if you provide a service and infrastructure to AI agents, this is positive (usage-based), like Datadog and Snowflake. He likes software and the Q1 sell-off of 50-70% piqued his interest, but these businesses are still growing 10-30% topline and very profitable. He dove in. These stocks are a lot less attractive now than in Q1. That sell-off was partly due to short covering. The ones that have since gone parabolic will catch their breath, so any pullback would be a buy.

DON'T BUY
Buy on June 12 on day 1?

Dollar-cost average over a year if you're excited by the name. The valuation is at nosebleed levels. You can buy a tranche and closely watch the lock-up sales. His concern is where the funds to buy all these shares will come from, for both SpaceX and Anthropic. If the funds come out of cash, that's good for the market, but if it means selling other shares, that's not good. He expects it to come from net cash. Would you pay taxable gains to sell NVDA in order to buy SpaceX? A risk is a deluge of insider selling. Overall, he will avoid SPCX. 

BUY

Will be closely tied to the copper price. Copper is key to data centres and there's a shortage, so that's a long-term tailwind.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

They have partnerships with OpenAI and Anthropic, so they are plugged into AI. The recent fluctuations are tied to index ETFs and not tied to fundamentals. MSFT will continue to do very well; strong balance sheet and earnings. Buy any dip.

BUY

Insider buying is a strong signal. Likes the set-up here. The strong data centre build is very net positive for commercial real estate for years to come.

COMMENT

The Canadian banks are very exposed to the housing market. However, if the front end of interest rates come down while the long end stays high, that's a net tailwind for banks. Lifecos are slightly better bet, based on valuations.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Credit cards are a fantastic business. Any fear over disruption is massively overblown. These companies are massively capitalized and investing heavily in technology. Any dip is a great buy.

DON'T BUY

The younger generation is much more aware of the ingredients in their good than past generations. This is not good for GIS, long term. Doesn't see revenue growth.

COMMENT

Separate gold (and the gold price) from the gold miners which face incredible operating risk (accidents, debt). Many investors buy gold stocks to be long gold itself, but you're better off buying a diverse basket of gold stocks with the core being gold itself.

DON'T BUY

It has been the cheapest US bank for 30 years, but they perpetually have management issues. JPM and MS are preferred.

DON'T BUY

Can't see them returning to growth in 2020-4 given competition. Also, how we consume content is changing. Returns are poor. Is not attractive at near-30x PE.

PARTIAL SELL

Is skeptical of companies that grow by acquisition. Is well-run and is trading at a reasonable PE, but doesn't see significant growth. If you hold an outsized position, definitely trim. This will withstand a market sell-off.

BUY

He owns other alternative asset managers, which have sold off from negative headlines. This sector will underperform going forward, but the stocks are cheap. There's lot of insider buying at BX, which is the best of the lot.

PARTIAL BUY

There's such a backlog in the data centre build that we're seeing a huge boost in earnings and net income. After its recent run, this will keep going, but at some point the music will stop, though not anytime soon. Would buy only a tranche now then buy more during a dip.

TOP PICK

They are converting from a REIT into a diversified asset management business, like Blackstone. Cheap at 4x PE and pays an 11% dividend with 200% coverage. At 30% discount to book value. When they convert the PE should reach 8-9x. Shares will double in 1-2 years. Great balance sheet.

(Analysts’ price target is $13.44)
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