Benj GallanderBallard Power SystemsBLDP.TOWATCHFeb 19, 2020
He used to follow this a while ago, when it was beaten up. Its batteries may be able to compete, but he does not know enough about it. It is too expensive for him today.
Renewables at lower cost rates don't work; you need the subsidies. But what does work are large-scale hydrogren projected. Not sure about small-scale like Ballard.
Recently, a lot more interest in hydrogen, which might be a spur to break its longtime downward trend. Very small company, not grabbing his attention. Better things to invest your $$ in.
It holds promise to be a player in alternative energy. Today, there was an announcement of a major order and could improve sentiment. This is a patience game. You need a long-term view, because there will be various alternative forms of energy and momentum could shift.
They make fuel cells for large vehicles. It has traded sideways for most of its history. There are two major questions regarding hydrogen: where does it come from and how do you transport it since it has to be highly compressed.
Highly speculative. He owns a tiny position. Society won't power EVs purely on batteries and will require a bridge that Ballard could benefit from. They represent value. A long-term hold for him.
Long term hydrogen will be in demand. Short term - business prospects unsure. Company will need to generate profits to earn investment grade status. Unsure on future of business.
Dream stock for 20 years (performance not materialized). Hydrogen not gaining enough market share. Would not recommend buying shares. Does not earn enough profit.
Good opportunity with China opening up? China is the source of its largest orders. There's been a lag. Not too involved in China's EV trade. Longer term, hydrogen is more of a 10-year story, not a China reopening story. Can this technology be commercialized, and does BLDP have enough tech leadership to make it unique as everyone scrambles for a piece of the pie? Lots of challenges. High on speculation, so it depends on your timeline and risk tolerance.
Spike in the chart was a result of pandemic enthusiasm, ARKK investing, brighter future. Concerned it's going to sit in a trading range over the next 2 years, dead money. If it trends lower, move out of the position and put your money to work in something that's working.
Good contract with Siemens. The ball seems to be going toward electric, not hydrogen. If you can afford to take the risk, buy it. Could be a big winner, but be prepared to take substantial losses. Risk/reward is even.
Company has not been able to delivery technology to general public (fuel cells).
Technology getting closer to mass production.
Patents are being lost to competitors.
Better investments out there.
Risky investment that is speculative.
Its revenue is 100 million which is not large. Still waiting for it to really commercialize. It raised a lot of money at much higher prices so it has good reserves of cash. The fuel cell industry is still developing and the question is can it compete against the electric vehicle system.
He used to own it to get exposure to fuel cells, but the market doesn't like high-PE names like this now. Also, their joint venture in China is delayed by supply chains and Covid. It's a leader in fuel cells using great technology, though. A higher-risk name, but it's in his bullpen so he can decide when to buy it back.
Has been a hold for 20 years. Was the stock to own in the late 90s. Hydrogen fuel cells technology have come a long way but the trend is down. Still want to be present as there will be rallies down the road. More of a trading stock.