Birchcliff Energy Ltd. (BIR.TO) Buy, Sell or…

Birchcliff Energy Ltd. (BIR.TO)

6.19

+0.01 (0.16%)

as of Sep 22, 2026, 8:00:01 pm Market Open.

292 watching

DON'T BUY

They are natural gas and people are frustrated with Nat Gas companies. Nat Gas is up in the states but this one has been hit. It is the difference between Canadian and US pricing differences. In Canada Nat Gas companies don’t have the same robustness from seasonality. Nat Gas will do well again just before the A/C season. Wait until you see Nat Gas going up before getting into this stock.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Why is the price of natural gas rising, but this stock is declining? There's not always a correlation between natural gas prices and these stocks. BIR has a $2.80 support level, but nat gas' seasonality just ended. We need to see BIR hold its current level. He expects investors to step in here.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Dec 18/17, Down 28%) It is ridiculously cheap. The balance sheet is very good. A year from now all three of these names should look really good. They have positive cash flow because they have firm hedges. Be bought stock last week.

BUY

It is a natural gas producer. He likes the setup for Canadian gas stocks. He bought in the fall. We are starting to get a cold winter. It set a record in Toronto last night. KEL-T was highlighted to him this week as one that gets a pretty good price for its gas and he recommends it also. He likes the gas trade here.

BUY

BIR-T vs. CR-T. BIR-T has much larger production than CR-T. BIR-T is a large cap vs. CR-T being a small cap. He likes both companies and owns them. He does not have a preferred one.

DON'T BUY

Small Cap Oil Names. The sector has been about as bad as it has ever been. CNQ-T or SU-T are preferable. There is debt, transportation issues, tax loss selling and no new money coming into the sector. There is no motivation to buy. Avoid the small companies. Perhaps look into the US at large companies.

BUY

They are mainly gas focused. They are well capitalized and debt load is good. They are waiting for gas prices to improve and then will increase their production. She is continuing to purchase today.

DON'T BUY

He holds no natural gas stocks in his portfolio as he remains bearish on natural gas. It is trading 5 times cash flow – near trough levels – but it is difficult to excite investors and the variability of weather is too uncertain.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick December 18, 2017. Up 24%). This will be a significant beneficiary of LNG Canada for 2023, along with Painted Pony, Bonavista Energy and Tourmaline. He sees this rising to $9 in 12 months and $15 in the next 3 to 5 years. Production is 80% natural gas. They will raise their liquids percentage with the new wells in Gordondale. Book value is $6.42 so the company is still trading at a discount to book.

HOLD

He likes this a hold for a positive FID announcement on a west coast LNG project. They are a drier gas play than others with a solid balance sheet. (Analysts’ price target is $6.90)

BUY

Seeing strong improvement now. Since 2017, it's been in a strong downtrend, but has recently improved. He likes it. Been a good rally in the past month, and he sees further upside for this stock and natural gas in general.

BUY

He likes the company. He has a $9.00 1 year target and book value is $6.42. He has a $15.00 target for 3-5 years.

COMMENT

Birchcliff vs. Trican Well (TCW-T) Go with this instead of Trican Well. (Analysts’ price target is $6.44.)

DON'T BUY

The seasonal strength for energy names is from the end of January to the start of May. The demand for energy product has been stellar. There is a trend of lower lows but that has been broken now. Everything looks good for this except for the fact that the seasonal strength is over, and the easy money has been made already. There is another period of strength in July. You might want to pause.

RISKY

They have a large exposure to AECO gas pricing, which today was trading at negative $0.15/GJ. Without the cold winter weather, AECO could be much worse. Longer term, the LNG decision by Shell to potentially go ahead could propel the stock up in the next 2-3 months.

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Birchcliff Energy Ltd. (BIR.TO)