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Bombardier Inc (B)BBD.B.TOHOLDApr 07, 2015Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 11, 2026. Market Open.
Aerospace is a great and growing industry. Catalysts for positive change, such as Canadian contract and potential NATO contract. Paid down debt, has become a pure-play business jet leader. Now has a dynamite balance sheet. Strong jet-delivery growth, margins expanding.
New order book grew 43% in past year. Services increased 25% YOY. Will generate $1B in 2026. No dividend.
It has had a very successful turn-around. It sort of downsized in 2020 and focused on business jets. At that time there was too much debt but the balance sheet is much improved now. The price then was around $10 so it has been a 25 bagger in 5 years. Since it is priced much more fully now, he would trim and not add.
Phases 1, 2, and 3 of the business cycle are the expansion phases and they typically last a year. His team believes that last year was phase 1, so now we're in phase 2. This matters because industrials typically do well in phase 2.
Likes it, chart looks great. He'd continue to hold. If it goes up another 1%, you could trim that 1%. If it takes out somewhere in the $240 range (which is a pretty good level of support), that's when he'd trim a bigger portion. A move below $240 indicates that something significant is happening.
Continues to execute. We have this K-shaped economy, and this name is at the top end of the K. Continues to build more business jets and sell more. Newer, faster jets are in demand from top corporate clients. Multiple defense initiatives, such as with Saab. Good work getting balance sheet in order, numbers continue to accelerate. Likes it here.
Pleased with performance. Continues to like. Runup this month due to contract to deliver 50 aircraft. Pure play on private aviation. A generation or half a generation ahead of competitors in medium- and long-range aircraft. It's the best on a range of metrics, and its money-is-no-object customers don't comparison shop. After-market parts and services business. Chance to win defense contracts.
Enjoying a moment in the sun after 20 years under a dark cloud. Most investors haven't yet realized that, so more upside.
Gaining altitude. Technological leadership in medium- and long-range aircraft. Order book looks pretty robust, production slate is full. After-market parts and service provide stable revenue. Airplanes can be repurposed for military use, and Canada's recently upped defense spending commitments.
Long and complex supply chain, and tariffs are still a wild card. So not out of the woods yet. Stock breaking out to fresh all-time highs speaks to its resilience and to worst-case tariff scenario probably not materializing.
A really, really interesting situation. There has been a lot of coverage in the media in the last 6 months. They have to raise about $1 billion of equity and $1.5 billion of debt to shore up their balance sheets. The aircraft industry is an oligopoly. Once you are in a stable situation, these companies produce a lot of free cash flow. The issue is when you are launching new airplane platforms. That is what is hitting this company. They have developed what is a world-class beating plane in the C series in the 100-175 seat category. Boeing and Airbus have inferior products in that category and they are doing everything in their power to sabotage this company by undercutting them. The market is very concerned about them losing money in the short term. The question is what is going to happen in 2015-2016 when they get into the actual production launch. He likes the company longer-term and sees a huge upside, but in the short term you have to wait and see how orders and development goes on this year.