
NYSE:BAC
Not expensive, trades below book. Nice dividend yield. Very strong wealth management and investment banking. One of the best retail franchises. Well capitalized to increase dividend or buy back shares. Commercial real estate remains a question for all banks, but mainly the regional ones. Though if one segment of banking falls, they all do.
Still likes it. Has a global presence. Is not vulnerable to deposit flight. US financials rank #3 or 4 among the 11 sectors this year at 10% total return. Is trending upwards since last October. Pays a 2.6% dividend and trades at 1x price-to-book. The economy is firm, not in recession.
Likes the money centre banks. Will do well with a normalized yield curve, as it enhances net interest margins. Fed signalling interest rates coming down should depress the short end of the curve, with the long end maintaining itself somewhat.
The group is trading at about a 30% discount to normalized valuations of around 13.5x earnings. That carries through to book value, trading at discounts to historical norms. He owns JPM, BAC, and MS, and that's where he'd put money.
Still owns it. BAC earnings beat recently. Fixed income and capital markets are still growing. Is trading below book value and pays a 3.5% dividend yield. During Covid, they invested in mortgage-backed securities, and they're now under water by $130 billion because rates are going up. That's an overhang that will continue until rates stabilize. But this isn't a risky regional bank, but diversified with strong segments.
Reporting top- and bottom-line beats today
He had sold the banks (MS, BAC, but is long JPM) to buy QQQs, and he stands by that rotation. If any banks decline, it would be the regionals, which he's avoided since the spring crisis. His outlook on the banks is limited, given regulations restricting hoarding capital on the balance sheet, which will impede loan growth. Plus, the economy will start to contract. MS and BAC are good companies, but he'd rather buy the debt of these stocks, because their balance sheets will be fortified.
They have a combination that works, including capital markets and wealth management. Should deliver a good report.