Alibaba Group Holding (BABA)

Sideways trading range. Looking for a breakout above 2023 highs. So many other names look so much better. China may see a bit of a bounce over the next couple of months, but we are getting to the end of the cycle. He'd lean toward taking risk off.

Some of his colleagues like it. America is overly negative on China; America has always needed an enemy. The valuation is cheap compared to Amazon. If you're bullish China, BABA could be a buy.

Alibaba and Baidu are the only safe Chinese stocks, one you can stick with if the economy falters. Shares have nearly doubled this year, but is still trades at 14x PE and 12x 2025. Has a $282 billion market cap, but also $170 billion in cash. Cheap.

Spectacular 1-week rally in the midst of a hope rally. Tactically, over weeks and months, sees more upside. But medium- to long-term, more pessimistic. Reason: tons of competition in China. There are 2 or 3 others that do what it does. Don't fall for "it's the AMZN of China at half the price"; far more nuanced than that.

Has been buying recently. Trend excellent, and getting better. Appears to be approaching new highs. Chart fundamentals appear to be excellent. 

A cheap stock, but they tend to report well, but people always find some reason to sell it.

Because of Beijing's flip-flops towards Chinese companies, anyone who has owned BABA has taken a beating. Too risky, despite it being a great company.

It's the cheapest stock around based on growth.

Cheap valuation, but comes with geopolitical risk. Depends on risk profile. 

Their business is excellent, but there's too much risk of interference from Beijing. A hard pass.

The Chinese government is cracking down on sellers (of the stock) so that selling dries up. That said, BABA is one of the few Chinese businesses that will do well.

Although it is one of the stars on the broad Chinese market, that market is down. The Chinese government exercises a lot of control so don't buy.

Yesterday, China did a smart thing by cutting their federal funds rate by 50 basis points. This is gigantic and has impact, by making their economy--and stocks--stronger. Also, he suggests they reign in their real estate industry. China has to do something to revive its economy. Also, both US candidates in this election year will bash China. Given all this, he's changed his mind about Chinese stocks and recommends Baidu, Alibaba, Pinduoduo and JD.com. They are very cheap and are real businesses. Also, they are recognized internationally. No, he won't buy them, because he doesn't trade, but if he did trade, he would.

Great company, valuation, and growth rate. Problem is Chinese Communist Party regulations are controlling its fate. To invest in China, he has to really like what he sees, and this isn't it.

Chinese reopening didn't happen as planned. Gets traction, and then the government pulls the wheels out from under, that's an overhang. He sold in Q1, too much geopolitical stuff. Lots going for it, but almost back at IPO price.