Bell Aliant (BA.TO)

DON'T BUY
Concerned that landlines are a dying business. Wire lines are decreasing year after year. Getting money to pay their cash flow is through cost cutting. Expect that BCE (BCE-T) will take it back at some point in time but wouldn’t bet the farm on it. 10% yield is an indication that it isn’t safe.
COMMENT
Announced the future long-term payout and it is a reduction and is built into the stock price. Longer-term he expects to see consolidation of regional Bells into the larger players. Very well run. Doesn't have cellular, which is the growth element in the marketplace.
TOP PICK
4.37% bond due September 13/17. Gives a little over 4% yield.
WEAK BUY
Will reduce payouts in 2011. Fairly mature. Built up cash flow and earnings through cost cutting. Nice safe stock but not sure you will make a lot of money on it.
TOP PICK
Good, defensive income play. Reasonable balance sheet.
COMMENT
Reasonable dividend. Announced what the dividend cut will be after they convert and there is probably not a lot of danger. Lack of growth but because they are a wire line business, there could actually be a slow decline. Doesn't expect BCE (BCE-T) are in any particular hurry to acquire them. 11.4% yield.
COMMENT
Landlines in the Maritimes, which are being cannibalized by mobile companies. Not a great growth profile. Cut distributions, which was not unexpected. Dividend is really solid. Attractive for yield investors.
BUY
In a good space at this time with strong free cash flow, strong dividend yield and a good track record. 11.5% yield. (Prefers Telus (T-T) with its wireless exposure and better growth prospects.)
DON'T BUY
BCE is the big one in the field. There was a question as to whether they would by BA. Their second quarter was a bit of a miss. People are looking at the conversion and wonder where the distribution will go to. This is a bit of an uncertainty. Would prefer BCE.
DON'T BUY
Will have to convert into a corporation by the end of the year. Would be very suspicious of anything with a yield of 8% or greater. This one has a yield of 11.5%, which is too high.
BUY
Chart shows a good base at around $25. Over 11% distribution, which may have to be lowered a little.
COMMENT
May have to shave their 11.1% dividend a little when they convert to a corp. Pretty much locked into their area but recent results indicate they have not lost as much in land lines as other telephone companies. Have also held their own in wireless and in adding other services.
BUY
Probably will be a cut in the payout. Wait until they convert and see what happens.
BUY
Good income. Has announced that when it is no longer a trust, it will pay out $1.90, which will still be around 8%. Wire line business in Atlantic Canada, rural Ontario and Quebec is slowly declining. To offset that, they are starting to install fibre to the home.
DON'T BUY
When they convert the dividend will be less than the current distribution. Not sure where their growth is going to come from. Relatively solid cash flow. Prefers others.
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