TSE:AVO

Avigilon Corp (AVO.TO)

WATCH

They are on a hiring spree. They have a lot of competition from China. They will have to continue to spend money to reach their goals, so there may be a better entry point down the road.

COMMENT

Chart shows that it is pretty volatile at this point. There doesn’t seem to be any discernible trend right now. It might be a short-term trading stock, but doesn’t know if he would take a long-term view on it at this point.

COMMENT

Good solid Canadian tech company in the camera and camera software business for industrial uses. Has done really well over the last 5 years. The guy who runs the company is a little unpredictable, and doesn’t like to listen to other people too much. This has caused a lot of upset in the stock, and a lot of institutional investors are uncomfortable investing in it. Not super cheap here. Kind of likes it longer-term for the business.

PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick June 20/14, Down 21.10%) Every time the CEO speaks there is controversy. After the past quarter it was down 20% and he saw multiple buyers on the stock so that told him something positive was happening.

COMMENT

Bought some after the last earnings report, where they missed. Looks like sales are coming through, but they are putting costs in place, which they have to do to get their marketing up. It looks like they have growth going forward. The valuations in the sector can go high. Their products are top of the line and still growing. The lower Cdn$ is going to benefit them.

COMMENT

Chart shows a long upward trend line, which was violated last year. It also shows an A, B, C correction. There was a key pivot point at around the $25 level. He has never been a big fan of their business model. Currently below the 200 day moving average, this is not a good sign, and doesn’t see much upside.

COMMENT

This is the digital camera business, a growth business and not paying a dividend. He found that he couldn’t forecast what they were doing, so sold his holdings 3-4 months ago. Have been a long time without a permanent CFO which bothers him a little. On the expensive side.

COMMENT

A security monitoring company that is cutting edge, moving the security video world from analog base to an IP based solution, at a very high level and a very high resolution. It has a massive addressable market that it can play into, because the entire world is using analog cameras that are not very good. Growing at 30%-35% a year. Not cheap, trading in the low 20 multiples, but he really likes the story. This is a premium grower.

COMMENT

Technically, to him, the stock looks a little bit broken. Unless it is trading above $25, he thinks the jury is out. It has been quite volatile over the last couple of months. There are lots of other opportunities in this market.

WATCH

It is a pretty wild and crazy chart. Some pretty major resistance on the stock at around $25, and thinks it is going to have some trouble getting through that figure for the time being. If he owned the stock, he would be very tempted to Sell it at $25.

DON'T BUY

(Market Call Minute) It was a darling for a while and the story seems to be broken.

WATCH

It became over loved and then came down in three steps. We need to violate the mid-2014 peak before he would get into it. He prefers XIT-T

COMMENT

He likes this and is still adding to his holdings. Trading at around 18X earnings, so it is not cheap, but from the growth you get from it, it is really off the charts. He thinks it grows into a much bigger company. CEO is 2 or 3 steps ahead of the competition of where they are going next.

WATCH

The high definition system means you need fewer cameras, less wiring and it costs less. They are expanding into other markets including the US. They have a great opportunity. It is a growing market. He expects an attractive return. Watch for results in May.

HOLD

Sold his holdings this past quarter at $24.50. Margins are getting squeezed so they have to pay more for their growth. Revenue and earnings are fine it’s just that SG&A (Selling, General and Administrative Expenses) are creeping up. Bought a video analytics company so that they would have a video system. Another thing that disturbed him is that they bought the Vancouver building for $42 million, and he questions if there wasn’t a better use of money than that. However, at under $20 continue to hold, because given their pattern, it’ll show a really good quarter and the stock might rebound. It would have to be $17-$18 before he went back into this.

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