Aritzia Inc. (ATZ.TO)

Fundamental things precipitated recent downdraft. Yesterday's chart showed fair bit of institutional selling. When you see that, typically more downside. Wouldn't be surprised to see $37. 

Chart shows a longer-term uptrend, so he doesn't mind accumulating. However, context is 4-year cycle will peak in first half of 2025. There will be a better chance to invest once we're through that.

EPS of 21c beat estimates of 14.8c. Revenue of $615.6M beat estimates of $583.4M. Guidance was fractionally lower, probably due to the company simply being conservative. Still, Aritzia could surpass full-year guidance for sales to rise 9-11% and consensus' 11% growth, aided by three flagship openings in 2H -- SoHo and Fifth Avenue in New York City and one in Chicago -- which the company said was the equivalent of opening 10 regular stores. New US stores' sales exceeded hurdle rates in 2Q, comprising half the 15.3% total sales lift. Ebitda margin may also beat management's outlook for 400-450 bps and analysts' 478 bps for the full year, with further upside in 2025, mostly from additional mark-on opportunities and as growth from new and repositioned stores leverage fixed costs. Balanced inventories also support margins, minimizing markdown risk. The quarter itself was very solid, but without upped guidance investors were disappointed after its big run up (still up 71% YTD). But nothing really changes here. The problems the company had (largely inventory related) have been solved, and growth continues nicely overall. We would remain buyers. 
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free 

Gotten mojo back. Admires management, especially as it's fashion (and women's fashion, to boot). Gets his nod over, say, a LULU.

It has turned around the excess inventory situation from last year. Its store square footage is expanding by 25%. Analysts have 32% per share growth pegged for next year

Excellent retailer in a notoriously difficult sector. Doing really well. A good name to consider adding for consumer discretionary exposure. Be mindful of headwinds such as Canadian consumer retrenching; some retailers navigate those macro headwinds easily.

Can be volatile, but they have long-term unit growth potential in the US. Are doing well with new stores there.

His models show that it has 10-15 years of growth to becoming a global, dominant brand. Penetrating the US, opening up in Europe. Feedback that it's not as cool as it was. His target price is close to $60, so you could still buy today.

The story is not same-store sales growth, it's number of stores in the future.

He missed this. It's done very well. Wider economic June retail sales were negative YOY, so he would take some money off the table and not put new money into this space.

EPS of 22c beat estimates of 16.5c. Revenue of $498M beat estimates of $486.9M. EBITDA of $53.8M beat estimates by 19%. Sales rose 7.8% led by 13% growth in the US. 2Q revenue guidance was largely maintained. Inventory optimization continues. (inventory fell 18%). Margins increased nicely, to 44% from 38.9%. Comparable sales rose 2% vs 1.3% expected. Investors should be happy here, but the stock has already been very strong leading up to the quarter. 
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

Does not own shares. Quality merchandise and corporate strategy, however waiting for share price to fall before buying. Also, waiting to see how management executes in the next few quarters. Better options for investors in the markets. 

WSJ came out this month with a very glowing article, particularly for working women in their 20s, highlighting an appreciation of quality. Volatility from being a pandemic beneficiary, and then inventory issues. Mostly getting through that. 

Expanding square footage 20-25% this year, will drive increased sales and earnings. 

Earnings have grown over time. Very confident on management's ability to execute on US growth strategy. Mismanaged margins, but sales per location held in. E-commerce has struggled. Stumbles keeping product "fresh".

It sold off from $40 because of negative sentiment towards the retail sector. Consumers are being squeezed and tightening their spending. It plans to grow its stores by 25% this year which should offset lower spending at existing stores.

Has owned shares in this company in the past. Strong demand for products in younger consumers. Retail footprint expanding at a high rate. Unique business model that is able to generate profits. Brand name that is very popular in young women.