Opinions Andrew Pyle
Alimentation Couche-TardATD.TOTOP PICKMay 28, 2025
Andrew PyleStock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jul 21, 2026. Market Open.
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His team just got back in after it walked away from the 7-Eleven deal. It's now sticking to its knitting. What's the knitting of ATD? Consolidating the market (only 5% US market share), as it's doing in Europe to add ~2-3% growth. Huge opportunities for continued acquisitions. Same-store sales growth of 2-3%. Revenue growth of ~6%. Yield is 0.96%.
(Analysts’ price target is $102.26)
Martin Cobb, ASIP
They failed 7-11 takeover was an overhang and overall convenience store sales have been weak in the U.S. So, ATD is offering more fresh food and prepared meals in their stores. They are seeing good results. Also, they have benefited from the volatile gasoline market from the US-Iran war; they sourced from lower-cost places. He expects them to buy more stores.
It sees volatility from the changing oil price; managers can't predict where fuel margins are going. They saw a breakout quarter recently, driven by wide fuel margins. Management has built a supply chain from several suppliers to keep prices low, despite the oil price spike recently. Their last earnings beat was major. Next quarter could be more volatile as the oil price falls. ATD is hitting new highs. There could be profit-taking before the stock price resumes going up.
Great quarter, beat by 35% on fuel. Margins were way up, 30% YOY. Same-store sales were also up. Market doesn't like fuel-based results, as it feels they're transitory. Good grower and compounder, good long-term story. He models 14% EPS growth; trading at 25x for quality, good balance sheet, M&A. Still not a bad entry point.
Growth-by-acquisition story, plus a little bit of organic growth. Assumes more tuck-in acquisitions over time. Exposure to inflation that consumers are paying every day. Share buybacks and dividend growth. Would perform well if we're facing a 1970s-type energy crisis.
One way to grow would be to expand its geographic footprint. Yield is 1.07%.
Darren SissonsReally good at acquiring and integrating. Growing revenues, most recently because fuel prices are higher. Consumers aren't spending more $$ in existing stores. Excellent operators. In general, he's staying away from the consumer (the downside factor in the inflation story).
Hard to see multiple expansion unless there's some kind of catalyst.
Buy the good ones when they're stalling out. Market fears that inflation will hit the consumer at the pumps, and then at the convenience store level. Things look pretty good. High quality. Trying to grow 12-14%, trades at high multiple.
Cheaper than peers. Attractive place for new capital to start building a position.
Well positioned, nice footprint in NA and globally. It all comes down to the Seven & I deal -- last few weeks have seen more positive rumblings of an agreement. His speculative call is that the deal will get done. Company will eventually come through. If the stock can start to form a base here, a positive trendline should start to form (though may not get back to where it was last year).
(Analysts’ price target is $84.06)Japan is "open for business" in this new world we find ourselves in, and that's an advantage for ATD. Yield is 1.07%.