Arc Resources Ltd (ARX.TO)

Effectively a liquid producer in drag. It is a name with a management team well regarded. It doesn’t have the beta that he wants. Very good well productivity. Very good quality in their acreage. Probably not one bad thing you can say about the company.

Gas has been weak so they did badly. She has been wanting to add this because they are a solid name at a 52 week low. Her clients are more focused on short and medium term gains, however. If we get through the next month or two without a decline in gas prices, it could be time to buy.

The effective payout ratio is 142% for 2017, which is something not sustainable. However, their balance sheet isn't bad, trading at 2.2X 2019 debt to cash flow. Valuation has improved quite a bit. It’s a high, high quality company that has just been caught in the middle of the storm with ECO prices having dropped the way they have. He models 10% production growth over the next few years. They have great assets and are very capital efficient. In a taxable account, it’s something you could be nibbling on. Dividend yield of 4.3%.

This has been punished recently and it has pulled back. Yet it has some of the highest quality, long life assets amongst the choices out there. It also has an extremely strong balance sheet. Debt to cash flow is under 1.5X, significantly below its peers. Has a good growth profile going forward. Dividend yield of 4.5%. (Analysts’ price target is $20.)

One of the best houses in a bad neighbourhood. A very high quality natural gas operator in Western Canada, in the Montney. They are producing in Alberta and British Columbia, were natural gas prices are nowhere near what they are getting for New York Mercantile gas. There is an excess supply of natural gas being produced in Western Canada. He’s generally vacated the gas producer space for the time being. He wouldn't be a buyer.

(A Top Pick Feb 10/17, Down 26%) He tax loss sold it and then bought it back yesterday. It is a good energy company with an excellent balance sheet and excellent properties. No one cared about energy this year and it was out of favour. Canadian Natural Gas prices were quite poor this year. The worst is behind it, however.

In terms of who is the best in consistency and track record, it is probably this company. It’s not just natural gas price in a company like this. They have much more exposure to getting the oil price as well as the natural gas price. However, gas is so low he had hoped he could get these things at a decent valuation. Because the company has done so well, it still has a premium valuation. He thinks he has a more consistent story out of Cenovus (CVE-T). (See Top Picks.)

This has just fallen apart with ECO prices, with Henry hub falling. The markets have been so good that portfolio managers are just taking losers and dumping them as tax loss selling targets. Thinks there will be a pop between now and the 3rd week of January. The bad news is that the dividend has a 142% effective payout ratio, so it is not safe. The balance sheet is not ironclad.

(A Top Pick Dec 28/16. Down 30%.) In hindsight, this had been a mistake. The company has an excellent balance sheet, great management, is mostly natural gas in the Montney area. He was optimistic on the price of natural gas. His mistake was buying a Canadian natural gas stock rather than a US natural gas stock. The Henry hub price for natural gas has gone up significantly since last year. Unfortunately, most of the Canadian natural gas does not get priced at Henry hub, they get AECO which is priced off of Alberta, and that price has collapsed.

A well run company. The problem with this and a lot of the Western Canadian E&P’s is that the biggest part of production is natural gas coming out of Western Canada. At times in September, that production was basically worthless. The oil and condensates they are producing is worth quite a bit of money, but gas is almost being given away. The Western Canadian gas market continues to be depressed, and will be for a number of years.

Natural Gas. He does not have big exposure to the natural gas space. He thinks it will be an increasingly important way going forward to replace coal. There are huge, huge supplies. It will probably range trade for years. He does not see a huge upside. He would hold now but if over the winter we get a cold spell and it shoots up gas prices, then it would be a time to liquidate. Oil will trade at a discount to the North American market due to a lack of pipeline capacity.

Thinks LNG terminals ultimately get built in Western Canada, but not very excited about natural gas prices in the near term. This company is good and its balance sheet is good for 2018. Further into 2019, the balance sheet deteriorates with natural gas prices being where they are. Not cheap relative to its peers, trading at around 9X, whereas its peers are trading at around 7X. Doesn't see a whole lot of growth. Nice dividend, but is at a 165% payout ratio.

This is known as a gas stock, but is fairly balanced with 60% gas and 40% oil. They have a great play in British Columbia, one of the higher-quality gas formations. Good management. You've seen a $10 pull back in the share price, similar to other gas stocks. Pays a nice dividend. It will have its time again. You just have to wait for colder weather and the supply/demand balance.

(A Top Pick Dec 21/16. Down 31.7%) A lot of the gas related stocks have been hit hard recently. The key in the gas and oil sector is to buy stocks that are well financed that can take advantage of opportunities on the market. He thinks we will see better results in the future and in the meantime you get a 3% dividend.

This is at EBV+2, $15.44. His model price is $18. They are paying out $.60. A mean estimate for earnings for next year is $.65. If there was a negative transit of $15.44, or the stock price goes below that, that is a Sell signal, and he would sell it.