Opinions
Richard Fogler
Amazon.com, Inc.
AMZN-Q
WAIT
May 01, 2025
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Large-cap tech names have seen big pullbacks. This name is off by close to 30%, valuation now more attractive. She owns it in a US-equity, growth-focused fund. AWS is the leader in cloud, helps offset lower retail margins.
Capex increasing to build out data centres; worries that overspending will not earn great returns in the near term. Concern that tariffs and a slower economy may impact retail spending. Have to wait and see the tariff story over the next 90 days.
This quarter should be OK. Last quarter saw growth by double digits in retail, cloud, and advertising. Increased same-day delivery by 60%, pretty incredible. Great business. Tariffs on goods from China can be passed on to customers. In a bad economic environment, consumers love the cheaper prices.
It's the next quarter where we might see some volatility around the stock price.
Loves the name longer term, but sold a month back. Disappointing when you pick a stock that's the belle of the ball until the Trump wrecking ball comes along. Growing ~19%, trading at 23x. Not expensive. Analysts are assuming clarity; if we don't get it, estimates will fall.
Be careful. Never forget that lots of people have made stunning amounts of money for a long period of time. These stocks don't owe you anything. If you're going to buy, do it incrementally.
No matter what happens with tariffs, when you think about retail there are no companies more dominant than AMZN, COST and WMT. AMZN is by far at the biggest discount to peers. Also, leading cloud computing in AWS with stable and expanding margins. Best diversification of cashflow.
Whatever the retail environment looks like, they'll win. No dividend.
Have to compete with shipping to the closest store. Unionization threat. E-commerce has pretty slim margins. AWS cloud computing growth isn't what it once was 5-10 years ago -- law of diminishing returns. He likes companies that take care of their staff and customers, and this isn't one of them. Dividend not great. Tariffs will bring lots of volatility to the Mag 7. More of a trade. Not for retirees.
He owns MSFT.
The consumer-related companies are taking it on the chin, so AMZN's retail side is taking a hit. Cloud business is great. Imports all its goods, and can more easily switch to importing from countries other than China. He's not buying much of anything now, but if he were, he'd probably pick this one.