Amazon.com, Inc.AMZNBUYJun 27, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jul 10, 2026. Market Open.
He expects Amazon and Google to win the AI race. They have the money to build data centres and hire the best talent. He trims when the share price rises, and buys when the price declines. AMZN is one of the best companies in the world and is a long-term hold. Their retail and cloud (the leader) businesses are growing.
His preference is MSFT, and he'd buy today. Valuation is ~20x PE -- very fair valuation for business with good outlook for earnings growth for next 3-5 years. A bit more value than AMZN right now. Business model supports a better compounding over the long run, and generates significantly more FCF. Late to the AI race, and that's the reason for the selloff.
No issues with AMZN. Very well run, targeting new markets. You can't own all the tech companies, so you have to pick your spots.
Looking at a longer-term chart, not a huge growth rate for a company of this size with its level of market share in cloud computing. Recent pop, but he's troubled by capex spending and its issuing debt. Have to ask what's the value proposition?
If you own it, don't sell, but don't back up the truck either.
His favourites right now are AMZN, NVDA, and MSFT. They're all going higher.
On the capex spend, sometimes it's a leap of faith. You're relying on these companies having some of the smartest people in the world with the most disposable capital. And those people really believe it's not a bridge to nowhere.
Undoubtedly, some companies are overdoing it and there will be another side to the mountain. But we don't know when that will be.
Viewers are probably thinking, "Aw, Kim, you picked all the big companies." But at the stage of where the market is, these big companies can definitely go higher in price. Even if something comes out of left field, these companies have the ability to work through it.
Tremendous AI momentum. AWS is a cash cow. Also has advertising; a hidden moat, because they know what we're buying. No dividend.
Cloud business is the growth driver, sort of subsidizing the retail operations. Retail margins are much lower, only mid-high single digits. Using automation to try to decrease cost of delivery. Prime memberships provide nice recurring revenue stream. Investing in AI, which will benefit retail. Very well run and focused. Hasn't fully recovered from fears of tariffs impacting volumes.
In her firm's growth equity fund. But the pullback is prompting her to consider it for segregated accounts.