Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM.TO)

Oct to May is seasonal strength so don’t step in now. It corrected and he expects it goes down to $16. The breakout was at $13 mid last year.

What he sees in these mergers and acquisitions deals is that companies are paying much too much for assets that they buy and later regretting it. That may be one of the things going on here. His feeling on precious metals is decidedly negative right now. You would think that with all the crises going on globally that gold would be going up, but instead gold is fighting to stay above $1300 and silver is under $20.

He is not a gold bug and owns no gold stocks at present. He has GLD, but is not excited about it. AEM and G-T are probably two of the best ones if you want to own gold, however.

If you need to own a precious metal you need one that delivers. This one has a great growth profile. It is THE company of size that benefits from the Canadian dollar weakness.

(A Top Pick May 31/13. Up 12.4%.) Last year, gold was down 20% and stocks were down 45%-50%. A big overreaction on the downside. This company is still one of the lower costs, more well managed mines. Good new mines coming on stream in the next several years. Still likes.

(Top Pick Feb 22/13, Down 10.66%) We are testing the 200 day moving average in gold. Thinks there are a lot of legs to this market and a lot of smart money is coming into it. Low cost of production, lots of cash flow they are spending on projects. On execution, management, assets, it is one of the best.

(A top pick Feb 22/13. Down 14.39%.) The important thing about all the producers is that they are pricing in a much, much lower price for gold then $1200. The physical demand for gold over the last year and its price has a complete disconnect.

(Market Call Minute) When billion turns, look out. This one will soar. When? Sometimes this year when we find out the QE program isn’t working and must be renewed but more so.

(A Top Pick Nov 30/12. Down 50.22%.) All of these companies have been going sideways since about June so they have been building a really solid base. Not cutting back on production. Kicking on all cylinders. Ready for whatever comes next.

Expect golds at this time are largely un-investable. You can’t touch these things. Have had incredible losses over the year and big volatility. He stays away from losing positions that have big volatility.

Gold seasonality is from July to the beginning of October. It can do okay in November. Technically, if it breaks past about the $30 level, it will be quite positive. It is out of season, so not something he is interested in.

We are getting late in the game for gold in terms of seasonality. Sector has been so weak that there will be a lot of tax loss selling.

(A Top Pick November 30/12. Down 49.98%.) He has just been managing his gold exposure but has just started adding. Pretty good entry point. Their costs of production are under control.

(A Top Pick April 23/12. Down 11.43%.) Sold his holdings in late 2012 at over $50 and bought some back this summer.

He would wait for a recovery at this point. They have done the right thing in the last couple of years. Good production growth over the next couple of years. Comfortable with the name. Any acquisition will be accretive. Low political risk. Happy to hold on to it. They could cut the dividend depending on gold prices. Would be surprised if they raised it.