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Air CanadaAC.TOTOP PICKNov 20, 2015Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 16, 2026. Market Open.
Travel stocks and airlines are very economically sensitive. Oil prices are spiking but Air Canada is better positioned due to Canada's energy supply. He likes it because it is building out a very strong global network with very unique routes that other carriers don't have. Trades at a discount to its US counterparts so there is lots of upside if the economy allows it. The next catalyst is bringing in a great CEO. Has a strong bench with a management team that has been there for a long time. Navigating the 2030's and beyond is the next big question for Air Canada.
Its planes are fuller now and the balance sheet much better. The stock price had started to improve but war and higher oil prices are bringing the price back down. There is still upside since it is trading at a discount to its historical valuation and to its US counterparts. He feels a fairer price would be $25.
Airline stocks have been hit by energy prices as well as tariff effects. Definitely on her watchlist. Progress operationally since pandemic, execution has improved. Balance sheet healthier. Demand remains solid, especially internationally.
Cautious on capacity growth. Cyclical industry. Near-term costs moving higher. She's watching demand trends and price discipline.
#1 would probably be Telus. BCE is also in there. Names like AC, MFI, PRL, GSY, WFG, and TFII. All of these stocks are cheaper than they ought to be. All things being equal, those names should be higher in January than they are now.
He got rid of it due to the choppy chart. Airlines are labour-intensive, subject to strikes, have high fuel costs, sensitive to the economy.
Chart's showing it's neither here nor there. If it broke a bit below where it is now, as part of a longer-term downtrend, could easily see $10 range and you'd be best to sell and redeploy $$ elsewhere. Reasonable dividend.
He does not really take an interest in airlines. There may be an opportunity now for Air Canada with all the rhetoric around the strike. It's been around for some time. Settlement should not be a huge number for cost increases. It is looking to expand internationally. You could buy when the strike is settled and the price starts to rise.
Trading at 2.7X earnings that is going to grow earnings by roughly 10% in a country that is a duopoly. Last quarter they had a return on invested capital of about 18%-20%, so they are shrinking the poorer element of the fleet and expanding the fleet to higher profitability areas. Slightly more levered than the average airline, but that is being paid down massively and quickly over the next year or so. Many of their peers are trading at 6X earnings, while this is trading at below 3X earnings.