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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets. The lack of hot weather has been a disappointment for the gas bulls, but there has been more at play than the weather. There has been a perceived oversupply from all the shale plays in the US, and in Canada in the third quarter the price of Nat Gas was twice what it was last year. There is some cause for excitement going forward for the gas bulls. Light oil and heavy oil pricing is up year over year and you can’t say that about North Sea or Brent. There are dynamics working here. We export all our crude into the US. Lots of interesting catalysts in the future.

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WAIT
Chinook Energy Inc

It is repositioning itself in Canada and there are some good assets in Canada. The management team has done it before. Give it some time and see how they do.

oil / gas
WAIT

Fell in love in it when heavy oil story was evolving in Canada. He thought it would react better. They are seeking a partner to make Onion Lake happen. Until they do this the stock will remain quiet.

oil / gas
WATCH
Delphi Energy Corp.

Bright future. It is on his radar. There is more success to come. A winter of good operating results will turn everybody’s heads. They have always been good hedgers. He is looking to see more results.

oil / gas
HOLD
Manitok Energy

Has been a favourite of his for a while and he has been wrong, but he still feels strongly about this one. The asset they have there is massive. Prairie Sky has a royalty on it and they are finding they are more oily than they originally thought. One of the lowest cash flow multiples he owns. He wants to see 30 or 40 wells drilled before he makes a decision.

Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
BUY
Whitecap Resources

He prefers this over CPG-T. They have one of the best dividend models of the companies he follows. Every time they make an acquisition it is accretive to shareholders.

Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
BUY

Dividends are healthy and it is one of the most sustainable dividend models he follows. Criticized for constantly issuing equity. They do so because they can. That takes the buying wind out of their sails.

oil / gas
STRONG BUY
Keyera Corp

Don’t get out. It will turn around. Biggest midstream player in Canada. This was the biggest year in capital spending in their history. Every dollar earns a profit. Dividend will probably increase over the next couple of years. Every time it creeps above 4% it becomes a compelling buy. A core holding and a compelling buy.

oil / gas
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Spartan Energy Corp

This is the third iteration for this management team. The multiple is high because the management team has done it many times before. You want to continue to hold this. These guys are explotationists and accretive acquisitionists.

oil / gas
HOLD
Surge Energy Inc

They are aggressive acquisitionists. Very comfortable with the sustainability of the dividend. Acquisitions are accretive every time. It helps NAV and cash flow. They are stopping acquiring and starting drilling. 8.8% dividend is tremendous for a premium while you wait.

oil / gas
BUY
Altagas Ltd

He does not have a fear of rates rising in the next 12-18 months. Multifaceted mid stream generator. The dividend can escalate based on the capital they will spend in the next couple of years. Buy below $45. Expects dividend increases.

oil / gas
PAST TOP PICK
Crocotta Energy

(Top Pick Oct 23/13, Up 53.33%) Taken out by long run. Likes the management team and their gas assets. See his top picks for today.

Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Oct 23/13, Down 21.25%) Yield was very strong and he felt the stock should go up to bring the yield down. Management decided to sell assets. Then they had some operating issues. Then we didn’t get a warm summer so he liquidated. Soon afterwards the dividend was cut. We will see what they can do to get the debt lower.

oil / gas
PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Oct 23/13, Up 71.59%) Very seasoned management. They did some good acquisitions. You just don’t get this kind of growth curve.

oil / gas
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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

Markets. The jobs report out of the US was not perfect, but somewhat encouraging. Last month was revised up about 40k. Thinks there was some short covering in the US. The week after next is the US third quarter earnings and that will determine the short term direction of the market and we may stop the slide, get through October, and get part of the decline back by the end of the year. Thinks we are seeing an average 8% increase in US corporate earnings. The TSX has roughly 10% and better than the US for the year. The energy side seems oversold.

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