(A Top Pick Nov 3/17, Up 54%)  They have all done really well.  This one is the 4^th largest lumber player.  The valuations now are not as cheap as when he bought them but the price momentum is still there.  There is always a chance that someone takes them out.  They have 60% production in the US so all tariffs would do is drive the price higher.

This had a nice little bump in the last couple of days. This is probably the best example of a seasonal trade. The best time to own these stocks are normally from around late January to around May of each year. After it reaches its period of seasonal strength, it has a terrible history of dropping drastically or going flat. This year, the stock has come back to its long-term resistance level. It is reaching the period of time when the stock has a history of moving lower. If you own, watch it for the next couple of days. Any strength you see will be an opportunity to take some profits.

Canadian forestry stocks? Canadian forestry stocks haven’t done very well because everyone knew the softwood lumber agreements were in question. Instead of the 30%-50% we were all talking about, it is only 20%, which is why these have just taken a jump in the market. Seasonally, forestry stocks start peaking out around now. This one had a strong break out in January and has had a run, even past the seasonal period. He would not be looking at forestry stocks. If you own, you could hold on for now and wait for it to turn down before getting out. Also, you could use a trailing stop and move your stop as it goes higher.

Stay or go?  He suggests you stay.  It was a Top Pick two months ago. It is a bit of a play on currency and there is the Trump risk with trade wars.

Compared to Canfor (CFP-T) and West Fraser (WFT-T), this has the least exposure to the softwood lumber issue. Only 15%-20% of their product is shipped across the US border. 60% of their production is already in the US. The housing market in the US is growing, but is still growing quite slowly because of the land restraints and labour supply shortages.

This is one of those stocks that has double seasonality. It has a very strong period of upside moves, and a very strong period of downside moves. Historically this has done very well from the beginning of October right through until April of each year. Something that is very important is the big arrangement with the Americans on softwood lumber, which is a very important issue for this company. They will be directly impacted by whatever the agreement is. Wait until you see what happens with that dispute.