DON'T BUY
Their decision to move to the US to attract more investors is not likely to work. They are competing with massive Permian producers. He discredits the CEO who joined, earned $70 million in compensation, but has only invested in $1 million in company shares. He can't back someone like that.
HOLD
He thinks there are too few energy players to make the space relevant -- and that is true for the entire space. Only the larger players will get investor interest. He sold this at $0.84 and thought that was the low. The concern he has is that they are not using free cash flow to buy shares, but that has changed. They have taken down a field for maintenance and it is not producer like before -- he has to research this further.
HOLD
The new CEO has payed down debt, rationalized assets and bought back stock. They are now monetizing assets at 10 times cash flow when the company is only trading at 2.8 times. All good things. If it traded back to 5 times cash flow, its share price would rise 100%.
BUY
He bought near the lows when there was fear it would be removed from the index. He thinks it should be trading near $6. Their market cap is lower than the capital they raised to purchase an asset from Cenovus. They released an update on new production that validated the purchase. He continues to own it. Their operations can support a continued 15% growth on future cash flow. He sees good upside.
TOP PICK
They continue to buy back shares. They can grow 5%, buy back 10% of their shares and still have positive cash flow. They are looking to increase their inventory in Colombia. Yield 0% (Analysts’ price target is $30.04)
TOP PICK
A very boring company that pays a high yield that is sustainable down to $40 oil. He has known management a long time. It likes being paid to wait for valuations to return. Their balance sheet is strong. Yield 8.29% (Analysts’ price target is $5.86)
TOP PICK
A high yield that is sustainable down to $49 oil. There is still good upside on valuation metrics. They have modest decline rates. He likes how they buy back their own shares. It is trading at 85% of its reserve blow down value. Yield 8.26% (Analysts’ price target is $6.55)
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 16/18, Down 38%) Multiples have contracted to 3 times cash flow. It is not that their cash flow has shrunk, it is just that investors are not willing to pay historical values. It has lost some of its credibility. It trades at 17% free cash flow yield at $55 oil. The company has 4 years of reserves that are currently flowing. Their holding in the Duvernay, is a commanding position. A large holding for him.
TOP PICK
Some people say that Chinese problems might spill over. He sees it as production chains moving out of China into emerging markets. These economies look good, and multiples in these markets are reasonable. A very broad index. China is 30%, India 10% and a world wide spread. It’s recently had a good run.
TOP PICK
His more conservative side. Low volatility stocks do very well when markets get dicey. It hasn’t been a bad ETF to be in through various market cycles. Mostly banks and utilities with virtually no energy stocks.
TOP PICK
Invests mostly in bank papers. A good place to park money for short-term. Better than just sitting on cash. The ETF is pretty liquid so you can sell it whenever. Boring but at a reasonable price and yield.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 30/18, Up 10%) Still likes it. He thinks people misjudged the company simply because it’s not a pure Canadian play. More a play on central and South American play. It has one of the highest dividends for a bank.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 30/18, Up 16%) The utilities surprised him by going through a flat period where they didn’t do well. If you’re searching for yield, this is a good ETF. A yield over 6 percent. A good place to park your money for cash-flow.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 30/18, Up 51%) He couldn’t understand why people were down on the company. It has tremendous cash in the bank, and he would like to see them acquire more AI companies. The multiple is reasonable. He still thinks its a reasonable company to own.
DON'T BUY
A big distributor of Caterpillar tractors so it’s a heavy equipment distribution company around the world. The backlog has dropped off. The market is anticipating something worse. If the economic outlook is positive, one of the stocks that will benefit. Especially from the conclusion of the tariff wars. He sees a tough period coming due to doubtful future sales.