PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 19/18, Down 43%) Operationally they have done well. In the US, investor sentiment has plunged as well -- energy now about 4% of the index. Democratic Presidental Candidate Warren has promised to ban fracking across the US. This would be incredibly bullish to oil. He thinks Canada will benefit dramatically and has shifted his investment back home.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 19/18, Down 63%) Unfortunately the market cap has become too small for the big institutional investors to be interested in this. He expects the dividend paying energy stocks would rebound well before this one does.
BUY

Heavy oil? He is bullish on heavy oil as countries like Venezuela have seen production fall to 20 year lows. Mexico is declining as well. This is good for Canada, but we are still pipeline constrained. At $60 WTI and $15 heavy oil differentials he likes CVE-T, MEG-T and BTE-T.

BUY

Heavy oil? He is bullish on heavy oil as countries like Venezuela have seen production fall to 20 year lows. Mexico is declining as well. This is good for Canada, but we are still pipeline constrained. At $60 WTI and $15 heavy oil differentials he likes CVE-T, MEG-T and BTE-T.

BUY

Heavy oil? He is bullish on heavy oil as countries like Venezuela have seen production fall to 20 year lows. Mexico is declining as well. This is good for Canada, but we are still pipeline constrained. At $60 WTI and $15 heavy oil differentials he likes CVE-T, MEG-T and BTE-T.

DON'T BUY
There are other names he prefers. The market cap has become too low to attract institutional investors. Yield 8.7%
HOLD
$10 in a year? They have under gone a management change and he likes the new team. They have sold assets, reduced operational costs, and maximizing cash flow to buy back stock. He would like to see them be more aggressive on the buyback next year. The stock trades at 3 times cash flow and at 74% of their liquidation value -- incredibly cheap. They plan to monetize some of their infrastructure and are buying back $100 million in shares by year end. He would like to see them buy back 10-15% of their shares next year to improve all metrics, while not foolishly production. Back to $10 would require a multiple of 5 times cash flow -- he is optimistic.
COMMENT

A takeout target? MEG-T is not his largest holding as they have more leverage than he is comfortable with. Their low cost structure and 65 years of production life, he sees them being able to de-leverage themselves back to 2 times cash flow over the next two years. The company will generate over 20% free cash yield at $55 WTI prices and $17.50 heavy oil differential. This makes them the #1 M&A target in Canada -- maybe CVE-T.

COMMENT

A takeout target? MEG-T is not his largest holding as they have more leverage than he is comfortable with. Their low cost structure and 65 years of production life, he sees them being able to de-leverage themselves back to 2 times cash flow over the next two years. The company will generate over 20% free cash yield at $55 WTI prices and $17.50 heavy oil differential. This makes them the #1 M&A target in Canada -- maybe CVE-T.

TOP PICK
A miss-priced US Bakken oil producer trading at just over 3 times cash flow and a pristine balance sheet. They have been buying back stock and increasing production with the free cash flow being generated. He would prefer to see them buy back more shares next year. Yield 1.36% (Analysts’ price target is $14.88)
TOP PICK
A strong sustainable dividend down to $50 WTI oil prices. Debt-to-cash flow of only 1 times. Backed by CPP, who owns 29% of the shares. Yield 8.57% (Analysts’ price target is $6.52)
TOP PICK
It was the gold standard in the market with a rockstar balance sheet and high yield down to $50 WTI. Over 60% of their revenue comes from liquids. The first time he has owned it as it has always been too expensive as it traded at premium mulitples -- a bargain today. Yield 10.95% (Analysts’ price target is $10.00)
COMMENT
Back to highs again with the expectations that the US and China will get some things done. The NSADAQ was up around 2%, with a smaller inverted yield curve. Technology, industrials and everything with China was up. Consumer stocks fell. China has only said that they would buy soy beans again. Patents and safety are another thing, and this is where they need to agree.
COMMENT
Normally you see sell-offs in September and October. It's a good time to watch when the sell-off is done and it's a buying opportunity. Things tend to be better in Q4 than in Q1.
COMMENT

Two completely different horses. Amazon is more innovative so it could have higher growth, but Microsoft has new upgrades, new contracts and is more stable. He wouldn't own either because FANGS make up about 20% of the index funds, so they will go down more than the others. Would buy half a position and add more depending. On a risk basis, it's too exposed to the overall market.